Mikhail Delyagin, Doctor of Economics
Public director of Globalization Problem Institute
General theory of globalization
«World for Russia:
the way we need it and what we can do with it»
(Analytical report open part in brief)
September 1998
Contents:
Resume 2
I. Information technologies expansion 3
1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background 3 ! On
difference significance in the technological time speed
1.2. New resources for new technologies 9
1.3. Old technologies «depreciation» 10
II. Several consequences of markets globalization 12
2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization 12
2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism 13
!2.3. Financial competition 14
Technological process slowdown
III. Global regulation for global competition 17
3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»? 17
3.2. New generation of TNC «the wind of Gods» 18
3.3. Value of global regulation 18
About the author in brief
Delyagin, Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics.
From 1990 till 1993 – expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts, since
1994 – leading analyst of the President of Russia Analytic Department,
since 1996 – referent of the President of Russia assistant. Since March
1997 – advisor of the vice-prime-minister – Minister of Internals, since
June 1997 – advisor of the first vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On
his leaving the government one day prior to August 17th, he established
a Globalization Problem Institute. In the beginning of October 1998
after new government under Mr. Primakov had started its work, he was
restored at the public service.
He has more than 300 publications (including in the USA, Germany,
France, China, India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest –
«Economy of non-payments» was republished for three times since 1996
till 1997.
Resume
Information technologies development has brought to:
«meta-technologies» creation, application of which makes it impossible
for the party which applies such technologies to compete with the
developers of these technologies;
reorientation of technologies from necessary material objects formation
to necessary type of conscious and culture formation (transformation
from high-tech to high-hume);
acceleration of information technologies development to such extent that
«short», theoretical investments are productive for the most advanced
information technologies;
approximate depreciation of traditional technologies;
Information society creation in which money plays second role as
compared with technologies.
Major humanity technological development prospects:
Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion between
developed and backward countries, and also between developed countries
and creating new technologies and the rest developed countries;
Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal
«information community», its concentration in the territory of the
developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community»
of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress in
the «most developed» countries;
progress termination beyond the developed countries; social and
financial degradation of the developing countries;
Possible abrupt slowdown of the progress in the result of global
financial crises and destructive competition between the USA and
European Currency Union.
Global monopolies formation is being performed:
At global markets of separate financial instruments;
In the course of these markets integration process (reduction of the
«transformation value» among them to negligible level) as information
technologies advance – in the form of the united global monopoly.
These processes will demand in the nearest future creation of the
overnational regulation mechanism for global monopolies, which will be
of more malaise character.
The whole development of the humanity including in the field of
economics is determined nowadays and will be determined in the nearest
decade by progress to the new qualitative level with two fundamental
processes simultaneously: new technologies development, information
technologies primarily, and based on it quick competition globalization,
primarily in the financial markets.
!lvl0I. Information technologies expansion
1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background
Technological development has brought in the middle nineties to actual
creation by the most advanced part of the humanity that very
«information community» which has been widely discussed for the last
decades and so that no one takes the matter seriously.
Realities of its functioning, casual connections and competitive
potential by the reason of intellectual and technological gap can be
hardly perceivable by those who are beyond of that process.
The most important way of showing this qualitative technological
breakthrough which has lead to creation of the information society and
at the same time one of its major parts is creation and quick
distribution of the so-called «meta-technologies».
Specifics of this type of technologies lies in that that the fact of
thier implementation makes for the party which uses such technologies
principially impossible to compete with the developer of these
technologies in a serious level. This may be called a price for access
to the effectiveness of a higher level which is provided by such
technologies and which might be found in dealer and licensed systems.
Modern advanced technologies in direct or indirect form place the user
in the position of a licensee.
The most telling examples of meta-technologies are:
Network computer: distribution of its memory in the net provides the
developer with the whole information of the user and allows the
developer to interfere into activity of the latter or even to control it
(external control principle of the plugged in computer has bee already
realized);
Modern communication technologies which allow to wiretap all telephone
messages all over the world; in the nearest future computer processing
of the whole volume of these messages and also wiretap of all messages
in the Internet will be possible;
Different organization technologies; their main subgroups:
Control technologies, including corporation activity organization:
oriented to culture and value system of the country the developer, such
technologies reduce competitiveness of the corporations which represent
other cultures; we should also note that in general distribution within
a society of a foreign types of culture which do not integrate with the
culture of the society and as the result the culture which not only
enriches it but remains detached from it, makes competitiveness of this
society weaker;
Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent adaptation of the
latter to the forms of influence arouses objective necessity in
permanent renovation of the forms; without renovated technologies which
at first appear in the leading country and then are distributed in other
countries mass conscious of the society using technologies which
influence it will get out of hand of the state.
Nowadays the said technologies have become predominating for their being
the most productive. These technologies having sweepingly spread for the
last years have already become a technological component of the
information society: if we speak about it from the technological point
of view we possibly half-consciously and non knowing about their
peculiarities we intend first of all meta-technologies.
It is quite natural, that conscious transformation from creation of new
technologies to their distribution and which is followed by creation of
information society was expressed in the clearest form by the leader of
this process Mr. W. Gates. He pointed out that the main factor for
information technologies development as compared with the previous of
1997 year, lays not in their upgrading but in complex usage of already
existing technical means for «information transparency» of all countries
— «transparency» as far as it can be understood quiet homogeneous for
the countries creating meta-technologies and aiming at protection of
their global competitive advantages.
But significance of information technology distribution is not limited
by creation of meta-technologies and safe provision of psychological,
intellectual and technological leadership of their creators. Besides
provision of global information transparency the most important part of
information technologies is the possibility (in 1999 it is still
potential) for deep and quite free reconstruction of mass conscious.
The point is that unlike traditional «material» technologies the product
of which are the goods, the product of information technologies nolens
volens is a certain condition of the human conscious including mass
conscious. Moreover: the most significant part of information
technologies was primarily aimed at such reconstruction of human
conscious taking it into consideration as the major purpose for
influence.
It is more effective to influence conscious than to influence the
material. Technologies connected with it have already received the name.
They are called «high-hume» versus «high-tech». In previous times
technologies were oriented to matter but nowadays they are reorienting
to the public conscience, public culture. Besides their high
productivity, «high-hume» technologies differ with high changeability,
i.e. maximum speed of making progress.
The pioneers of their exploration — the USA — engage the most mobile and
in correspondingly the most effective form of financial capital —
venture capital — to creation of the most effective type of information
technologies. Engagement of such capital to creation of the ordinary
technologies as it is may be shown by the experience of the developing
countries is impossible because of «slowness» of the non-information
technologies: performance of any project connected with such
technologies demand for larger time period than traditionally «short»
venture capital is ready to be invested.
In the result of it we observe destructive non-compliance of the speed
of the venture capital turnover and establishment of traditional
technologies. Wide-ranging investments of the venture capital are not
effective for the national economy because of the said factors: it
leaves without creating anything real and leaving after it only
desolation.
But the speed of information technology development has a qualitative
higher rank than ordinary technologies. That is why information
technologies are the only type of technologies in respect of which
«short» venture capital has a quite normal productivity. Their
technological cycle is so small that it corresponds to the speed of the
financial capital turnover.
That is why the American economy should not be afraid of «distending a
soap exchange bubble»: it looks like a soap bubble only from outside.
Actually the huge part of these venture investments is directed into the
information technologies and at expense of their accelerated tempo of
their development carries for their recipient quite normal productive
but not venture character.
This is the principal advantage of the American economy over economics
of other countries of the world. This is the reason for its medium term
stability in the forthcoming global financial
On difference significance in the technological time speed
Significance of the time factor in new conditions is evidently
demonstrated by the mass bankruptcy of computer firms in the USA. The
bankruptcy is followed by the fact that implementation of new
technological principles demands for such period of time that these
principles become outdated.
Thus, the company which directs a part of its resources from the sphere
of technological race to the practical realization of new decisions
reaches the slow scale of «technological time» and fails as compared
with its competitors which remain in the zone of «pure» sphere of new
ideas development in which the technological times changes in a quicker
way.
But application of «high-hume» technologies is connected also with
danger. Thus, seeming easiness and impunity of conscious influence
arouse the most dangerous professional illness of the employees engaged
in the sphere of public relations – it! is the temptation to solve
problems not in the real way but with the help of the so-called
«brainwashing» method or we may use more exact German analogue of this
term: ote Seelenmassage».
The first problem of «high-hume» is connected with it: on carrying away
by it the control system (of the state or of the corporation) starts the
process of self-hypnosis that makes it inadequate. It is principally
important: «high-hume» technologies are dangerous not only for the
object of their influence, but for their user as they also transform
conscious of the user.
The second problem: to reach the political result it will be enough for
the user of the «high-hume» technology to form necessary type of
conscious of no more than 20% of the population being the elite of the
society and influence on taking resolutions and being the example.
Efforts in this direction evidently draw the line between the elite and
general mass of population and create within the society internal
disagreements between the self-hypnosed elite and the rest population.
Moreover: the elite being apart from the population began to percept the
ideas, which correspond to its principles. In the result of it 80% of
the intellectual potential of the society is lost – while the
Thus, gradual appliance of information technologies in respect of the
elite class of the society is limited by the area of democratic borders
of the elite class itself and that is why it reduces the society
potential. We saw the example of the Russian reformers of 1992 — 1998
years, who could run away from the population by application such
advanced information technologies to themselves to such extent as the
communists could do for seventy years of their domination.
In the result of it we have a paradox: more advanced informa6tion
society should be less flexible and adaptive and as a result less viable
but more stable in its confrontation with non-information society. Is
not it the reason for paradox viability of the authoritarian regimes in
the end of XX century?
It is possible that this phenomenon is an «implemented guarantee» from
the informational imperialism, from subordination of the entire world to
one the most informed country. And the total mortification of the
conscious of other countries with the help of information technologies
is impossible because of differences in cultural aspect which
automatically defend minimal intellectual and information sovereignty of
each nation separately. But it would be too naive to hope for it as the
major resolution of the forthcoming problems under the circumstances of
gradual integration of cultures into united culture for the whole world
(On the first stage into three major cultures — Christian, Islamic and
Buddhistic).
Taking into consideration a private case of information war – «culture
aggression» (i.e. obtrusion of its own culture to the society the
potential of which it does not correspond) as an instrument of
international competition (applied only mainly in the inconscient way,
in the order of markets winning for sale — the carries of such culture),
we should re-estimate the role playing by traditions.
Traditions are the psychological protection from something new: it is
the attempt to live as if nothing has happened. In the conditions of
reconstruction of mass conscious of actual and probable competitors of
the tradition starts to act not like an ostrich, but it goes through
minimization of negative consequences in changes having «squatter»
order: attempt to cancel by ignoring of these charges or cancellation of
their major part. I.e. it is a spontaneous reflection of the information
attack by the information method.
* * *
The above said means that creation and distribution of meta-technologies
reduces significance of financial resources from the point of view of
competitiveness of the societies and corporations: if they have been the
main source of power earlier, now they become only its consequence.
Intellect has become the main source of the market power. Intellect is
embodied in organizational structures of the research and market
corporations creating meta-technologies and holding control over such
technologies.
Rephrasing Mr. M. Fridman we can say that money recedes into the
background after creation of the information society. The reason lies in
the following: that property right for the meta-technologies makes an
organically inalienable part of the holder and his intellect, with the
help of which these technologies have been created and are supported,
according to technological reasons.
Meta-technologies in a greater degree will transform in a «second
nature» making the borders and creating conditions for development of
the personality and the humanity in general. As such these technologies
will gradually exchange market relationship and property rights
performing these functions since the moment of money appearance.
1.2. New resources for new technologies
Disintegration of the USSR has given to the developed countries such a
financial and intellectual possibility that they were able to speed up
their development on the «lagan» of the disintegrated USSR (differences
in orientations and correspondingly outlook for Europe and the USA shows
that the first one has got finances and the latter – intellect). Thus,
having won in the cold war developed countries not only destroyed their
global antagonist as we have got used to consider but they managed to do
more: they have captured and used its resources which were truly
speaking dreadfully used (the socialism differed from the capitalism
also in the fact that on preparing the best in the world people
resources it united them into organizations in the worst way).
It has a principal importance that in the new information postindustrial
world the most important resources are first of all finances and
intellect, which may travel very easily from one territory to another,
but not the territory with fixed production and people.
That is why the appeal to the people from developed countries, who are
capable to organize system of government, had no sense in the nineties:
new major resources for development are not attached to a certain
territory! Nowadays the effective frontier consists not only in recovery
of the society within such a territory but otherwise in isolation within
the society with further exemption from its main part of healthy and
progressive elements, i.e. people – carriers of finances and intellect.
In such method of frontier the progress of the more developed
«frontiering» society goes at expense of degradation of the society on
frontier, and the scales of degradation of the society on destruction
outgo victory in culture and in progress of the more developed society.
As compared with traditional harmonic processes of development,
development at expense of a alien degradation has always the character
of a «play with negative sum».
Thus, distribution of information technologies has changed on a
qualitative level value of resources placing on the top position
intellect and finances, which are more mobile nowadays. It has changed
the process of cooperation between developed and developing countries:
constructive frontier of the last by the latter with the help of direct
investments into the real sector has started to climb down to the
destructive frontier with the help of exemption of financial and
intellectual resources.
Understanding of realias and consequences of such transformation has
given birth to the theory of «dead countries»: under influence of the
new information imperialism, the developing countries become actually
«dead», as they irretrievably loose not only the most important
intellectual resources for development but also the possibility to
produce them. This leaves nothing in store for them.
1.3. Old technologies «depreciation»
Irreversible lag of the developing countries is creating not only by the
reason of «wash» from them of the most valuable under the new conditions
resources, and also due to collapse of the usefulness of traditional
resources and technologies which these societies dispose. As the most
important result of each new level of development of the humanity from
the point of view of the practical politics is comparative depreciation
of all «old» technologies and products or their appliance as they are
distributed.
Depth of such depreciation will be in proportion to the primitiveness of
the «old» technologies and to the level of monopolization and
competitiveness of the market of such technology products. In accordance
with this rule we have a depreciation first of all technologies of the
mineral industry because of distribution of the information
technologies. First of all this process influences oil, world market of
which is liberalized in the most extent.
And as the result of it we have a regular reduction of its price in the
world market (in 1999 according to estimations to the level of no more
than 8 dollar per barrel) that is followed not so much by the agreement
between the USA corporation and the Saudi Arabia but more deeper factor:
creation of new information technological lifestyle which has new
qualitative level. Such lifestyle has started depreciation of the
previous lifestyles by the fact of its appearance.
That is why reduction of prices all over the world for the raw materials
and in a broader sense for the products engaging little intellectual
work will become a tendency deviation from which will be non-significant
fluctuations. In this sense the USA actively placing its not so much
ecologically but intellectually «impure», i.e. too simple productions
has got a maximal guard from negative consequences of their own
technical breakthrough.
* * *
Summing up the above said we may make a list of consequences for new
technologies development:
Exacerbation and acquisition of final – at the same time keeping the
existing tendencies – compelling character between:
developed and the rest countries;
creating new technological principles by the developed countries (it is
possible that we should use the term «the most developed / advanced
countries») and the rest developed countries;
Insulation, which take place in all countries, of people engaged in
information technologies into internal «information community», its
concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow
concentration of the «information community» of the world and together
with it concentration of the world progress in the «most developed»
countries;
progress termination or its abrupt slowdown (at least technical) beyond
the developed countries; social and financial degradation of the
developing countries;
reduction of the number of developed and the most developed countries
because of hard competition.
Several consequences of
markets globalization
2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization
The process of distribution of information technologies is influenced by
the process of globalization which is created by the process of
distribution of information technologies but which has the same level of
importance. Formation of the united world markets at least in the
financial sphere and gradual integration of the global markets of
different financial instruments into united world market includes into
the agenda the question referring to creation of the global monopolies.
The reason of it is very simple: it is impossible to divide a single
market.
Well-known examples of market division had either quite a short period
of existence, as compared with the term of existence of the domination
product, or were based on objective backsets. That made access to a part
of competitors to any principally significant element of the market more
complicated.
Information technologies reducing transaction expenses to minimum and
also an «entrance fee» to the global financial markets destroy these
backsets, eliminating any possibilities for any stable part of these
markets. Term of existence of the dominating product – information – is
going down to zero that makes practically impossible even temporal
division of these markets.
In the result of it creation of global monopolies has got two
simultaneous directions:
Formation of global monopolies in the global markets of separate
financial instruments;
Formation of the united global monopoly in the result of integration of
the said markets (reduction of «price for transformation» from one
market to another down to a very small level).
The American government plays the role of the latter monopoly as it has
very close contacts with the based in the territory of the USA
transnational corporations including financial most of which due to the
specifics of their activity do not need any organizational formation.
The matter may have the following form: the world policy will recently
terminates its existence on the state level, transforming, on one part,
to the national level of global groups of capitals and technologies and
on the other part – to the internal level of political life of the
country controlling over the major part of these capitals and
technologies.
(In 1997 during the progress of the proamerican «team of young
reformers», the Russian lobbyists were greatly amazed at finding out
that the sphere of the most effective lobbying of several matters in the
internal Russian politics had transformed from the Governmental level
and the level of the President’s Administration to the level of the
Congress and the USA administration. In the USSR all matters having
principal importance referring to development of the republics or
regions should be solved not by their own authorities but by the
curators of the corresponding directions in Moscow – in the Central
Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and in the Council
of Ministers.)
2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism
In 1999 the rest tow parts of the process of monopoly globalization will
elapse against the most important event of the century – commencement of
the process for euro integration. Commencement of European currency
integration will be the first real after establishment in the beginning
nineties of the total world financial crisis attempt which has chances
to become a success to depth regional integration up to the level which
will dominate over global integration.
Integration of «euro» will reduce foreign currency reserves of banking
systems of the world (firstly of Europe) and will release from them a
great amount of dollars (only in China about tens milliards).
Besides, settlements at European market of energy carriers are made in
dollars. Transformation of these settlements into euro will be after
integration of the latter simply a matter of time, let it even be long,
but it will release several tens of milliard dollars.
At last purchasing capacity of the maximum European banknote in 500
euros will be higher of the purchasing capacity of the maximum banknote
of the USA denominated in 100 dollars. It will transfer into euro the
major part of the large sums in cash in Europe, and not only in the
countries of the currency union but also in the neighboring countries, –
also tens of milliard dollars.
Apparent non-solicitude of the «Eurozone» leaders of the future of such
dollars carries an extremely destructive character of inactivity not
only for the USA but also for the rest of the world. Actually this
inactivity provokes the USA to strengthen the process of further
destabilization of the financial system of the world.
European dollars and China dollars should be absorbed by other countries
not to destabilize the USA on their coming back to the country. Such
absorbation of the world reserve currency to a great extent happens only
under the conditions of a very deep economic destabilization. Such
extent may be only compared with its release under the process of euro
integration.
Thus, egoistic indifference of Europeans to welfare of the main global
competitor – the USA – in a strategic plan provokes the latter to make
destructive steps in respect of not only the eurozone economic power of
which is protected from a short-term influence but in respect of the
third parties, i.e. countries which are less stable and due to this
reason these countries are a favorable potential recipient of the
releasing dollars.
The most threatened regions are the Latin America (first of all it is
Brazil) and several countries of the South-Eastern Asia and may be
China.
2.3. Global financial competition outlook: technical progress slowdown
Attempt to carry out sterilization of dollars through disorganization of
national economic system can not be the decision for a problem even if
such method allows to postpone the decision of the problem despite of
its being very expensive.
There are two final and real variants to solve the problem:
First – carrying out of long-term investments of the releasing dollars
into large projects in the zones of mutual influence of the USA and
Europe (for example: reconstruction of the Transsib aimed at
establishment of the united transport European-Asian line
«London-Tokio»). As Russia still remains under political influence of
the USA and under economic influence of Europe, sterilization of the
extra dollars of the world in the territory of Russia will be for the
USA an exchange of a part of its geopolitical influence to the
short-term and medium-term economic safety.
This variant demands for not only constructive approach to the problem
(for example: it corresponds to the demands of the overheating economy
of Japan) but also consent of the Russian society for its deep
healthening or at least readiness for it.
The second variant – taking a pause which may be gained after dollar
runoff to the destabilizing «second economics» of the world for
organization of the head-on competitive collision with the eurozone,
first premonition of which could be found with non-united European
economy in the September, 1992, and with only starting its trip to
integration economy of the South-Eastern Asia in the second half of the
1997 year.
This scheme allows the USA to take the strategic initiative and make its
own choice of time, sphere and the character for this collision that
taking into consideration factor of abruptness gives the USA an
advantage.
At static consideration of outlook for such collision based on
comparison of the already existing resources, Europe has advantageous
chances. But as compared on the point of view of dynamics taking into
consideration level of expenses, increasing role of newest technologies
and actually «natural» (after disintegration of the USSR) monopoly of
the USA on holding its holding and development performed with taking
into consideration cardinal differences of the American and European
bureaucracy (the first one – creates, the second – exists) makes us to
make our choice in favor of the USA if we have a long-term outlook for
future.
Influence of «dynamic» factors of the technological quality and
bureaucracy on the modern competition may be indirectly seen comparison
of losses borne by European and American capitals in Russia and
South-Eastern Asia: in both cases losses of Europeans were greater than
that of the Americans from all points of view. Besides, if in the USA
losses were borne only by structures, which do not make the main part of
the national economy, with high risk possibility, but in Europe – losses
were borne by the banks making the basic part of its banking system.
There is no reason to consider that in the nearest years proportion of
effectiveness of two financial and governmental systems will change
greatly.
Besides, the USA will always be able to carry out discrimination in this
or that form of at least a cash part of dollars which are outside the
USA. It may be performed for example under the slogan of struggle with
international crime: first of all, this thesis is a standard method
using by the USA in its international competitiveness, and then – it is
true: turnover of the major part of the US dollars outside the territory
of the USA in this or that form is connected with law violation, and,
thus, the USA progress is based to a certain extent on lurking
stimulation of the criminal activity outside the USA.
Of cause, such discrimination will abruptly limit the most important
financial part of the economic power of the USA – usage of their
national currency as an international reserve currency and that is why
it may be used only as «the last means».
But in any case not depending on the result of the global financial
confrontation between the USA and European Currency Union it will lead
to the unfavorable event for the humanity: cardinal slowdown of the
China economic development which may be followed by its destabilization,
regress and even disintegration.
China mainly develops as an export oriented country integrated into the
markets of Europe and the USA. Collision will reduce purchasing capacity
of the outgoing party and correspondingly will reduce its import
including from China. And this collision won’t depend on the result of
collision between Europe and the USA.
China will hardly bear such an abrupt reduction in its export, which
will be the catalyst of all its internal problems, which are now in an
inchoative stage. Destabilization of China will be such an event that
will be able up to 2015 year set the whole world economy in chaos
(except the winner: the USA or the eurozone).
Truly speaking, victory of the latter will be a Pyrrhic victory: leaving
behind the competitors and together with them the whole world for a
generation (of people and main technologies), it will loose the main
sale markets for its products that will slowdown its own development.
In that case we will have a losing or at least conservation of the most
advanced technologies: in the event of eurozone victory – because it
does not know how to create them, and in the event of the USA victory –
because of abrupt reduction of the sale markets and realization of these
technologies, that will weaken in cardinal way stimulus for their
development an will reduce resources engaged for such purposes.
Thus, transformation of disagreement between the eurozone and the USA
connected with integration of euro and release of the extra dollars to
the level of negative competition will be followed by the possibility of
slowdown of the development of the whole mankind.
III. Global regulation for global competition
3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»?
Possibility of slowdown of the development of general human technical
progress as it was shown in the previous paragraph is a minor point of
the general rule: development may have only total character. Any attempt
to force back the competitors disrupt the development making it
narrower and poor and increasing the level of monopolization through
reduction of sale markets to the products of the winner, and leads,
thus, to the total slowdown of the development and stagnation.
It is quite evident: for the mankind itself problems of its own
development has already become very difficult according to our
traditional understanding. National states come across with such thing
that their «habitat» is spontaneously formed by overnational structures
(including overnational structures holding meta-technologies), which,
thus, predetermine their actions and lead the mankind to serious
cataclysms and abrupt slowdown of the development due to their egoistic
motives.
If we do not want to allow the described consequences it is necessary to
establish that very international economic regulation which was
mentioned in practical terms after Lenin for the first time by G. Soros:
«economic UNO», which differs from the already existing political
economy with qualitatively smaller level of bureaucratization as
financial processes have qualitative difference as they are more quick
and correspondingly demand for their regulation quicker actions and
effectiveness in general than that of the political processes.
Existing intellectual and consulting «stages» of global financial groups
notwithstanding to the dominating influence on them of the USA, may
become an embryo of such organization. The main trace of character for
such organization providing as in the case with UNO principal capability
shall become the general understanding of reality of mutual destruction
enforcing the strongest partners to search for the compromise with more
weak partners and even vesting them with right of veto in respect of
strategic and more complicated matters.
3.2. New generation of TNC «the wind of Gods»
The main task of the organization aimed at performance of international
economic regulation is the regulation of the transnational monopoly
activity. Besides it is very important to understand that the old TNC
are not the owner of the world any longer. The global financial groups,
development of common and meta-technologies replace them. These groups
are very often non-formalized (that makes their regulation more
complicated), but their effectiveness, mobility and many-sidedness
exceed analogue qualities of the traditional TNC.
For better understanding of the actual problem it will be enough to note
that coincided with increase of activity transformation in 1993 of
researchers performed by transnational corporations from the special
body of the UNO (UNCTC) which in general was able to meet the task, to
the lower level – the department of the UNCTC, which considers
development of the TNC mainly from the departmental positions of this
organization (in respect of trade and development) and due to
institutional reasons in general cannot cope with complex observance and
analysis of their activity.
This is the first sign of finding by this or that group of the crucial
influence: termination of unpleasant for this group (as a minimum
independent, and in case of absence in demand in advertising – any
external) researches of this group.
As we can see it in the first chapter, the technological leader of the
mankind – Mr. Gates – is only going to provide information transparency
of other countries – but overnational monopolies influencing the world
greatly leave him behind for several years preventively liquidating
globally even a possibility of primitive statistical research of the
development.
3.3. Value of global regulation
Increase of influence of the overnational monopolies may reproduce the
situation of the end of twenties and thirties of this century. At that
time domination of private monopolies in the economies of the most
developed countries (including to certain extent the USSR) had lead to
their stagnation and to the Great Depression. There were formed on the
national levels mechanisms of state control over monopolies in the
course of the struggle with the Great Depression, but it was defeated
only in the course of preparation for World War II.
Taking into consideration these events but from the point of view of
power, we should pay our attention to very significant drawbacks of the
purely economic approach. Thus, we got used to consider the immediate
cause of the Great Depression the mistake made by the American
government: in that very moment when from the economic point of view it
was necessary to alleviate financial policy it was otherwise cardinal
toughen that was followed by crash on the stock exchange and economic
catastrophe.
But the fact which from the economic point of view was inexcusable
mistake, from the political point of view it was the only way out. As in
those days America had to solve the main and the only question of power.
Question of the economic welfare was of a minor importance for any
practical politician.
When there is a threat to economic conjuncture there was a question: who
should govern the country – state under conditions of democracy oriented
in general to the interests of the society, or several private
monopolies («oligarchies») oriented to their own interests which are in
contradiction to the social interests.
And for the purpose of restoration of its dominating position partially
lost after creation and heyday of private monopolies in the twenties,
the American government without any doubt and at once with determination
which is very typical for Mr. Chubais (Russian reformer known for his
extreme and drastic measures aimed at improvement of economic situation
in Russia – annotation of the translator) plunged the country into
unknown in the history of mankind catastrophes which destroyed almost
the half of national economy and left a scar in the soul of every
American survived in these catastrophes.
I would like also to underline two 60 years old events important for
better understanding of the current situation.
First of all, this dreadful resolution was right from the historical
point of view, as private monopolies due to objective reasons were
unable to perform necessary functions of the state, and their domination
could be followed by greater catastrophe for the society, though it
could happen later (that is quite evidently shown on the example with
Russia of 1995 – 1998 years).
Secondly, it was a spontaneous resolution adopted on the level of
collective conscious (or even «collective unconscious») of the state and
the society. There are not proves for the fact that the political aspect
of resolution was established by several even holding posts of a very
high rank participants of the event. Though it is evident that they
fully sensed the political aspect of the events described would never
want to disclose it.
It is possible that in the nearest future the mankind will have to go
through spontaneous and non-understanding by several contemporaries
resolution of such a question referring to power (taking into
consideration accelerating course of progress) on the level of world
economy and world policy. It is possible that it will be as difficult
for developed economics as it was difficult for industrial and financial
centers of the USA in the end of twenties (that is indirectly proved by
our forecast on slowdown of technical progress of the mankind), and it
will be also destructive for less developed countries as it was
destructive for the American agricultural godforsaken regions of that
period of time.
It is also possible that «economic UNO» which was spoken above will be
created as a mechanism to control over overnational corporations and
mainly to control over global financial groups. And as the result it may
become the power of the world.
As for the external event referring to our economic system (i.e.
referring to the whole mankind) which will find out the way from
depression resulting after crisis, this event will also leave no time
for delay and compromise and it will mobilize the mankind as World War
II did it. And it is impossible to foresee such event even with the
lowest positive degree of accuracy.
We cannot but hope the leaders of the mankind (to which we cannot refer
our country) like 60 years ago will be the first to see it and notify
the other with word of mouth of their strategist and city mad people.
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