2
IAOEIAI – AeINE?AeIEE AEIIII?*IEE ?INOEOOO
I?I?NOA?NOAA AEIIII?EE OE?A?IE
EI?AAEUeIA Ieeiea Ieeieaeiae/
OAeE 338.92.011
IAOIAeE*I? INIIAE I?IAIICOAAIIss AAEIAIAI AIOO??OIUeIAI I?IAeOEOO
Niaoe?aeuei?noue: 08.02.03
I?aai?caoe?y oi?aae?iiy, ieaioaaiiy
? ?aaoethaaiiy aeiiii?eith
A A O I ? A O A ? A O
aeena?oaoe?? ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy
eaiaeeaeaoa aeiiii?/ieo iaoe
EE?A 1999
Aeena?oaoe??th ? ?oeiien
?iaioa aeeiiaia a Iaoeiai – aeine?aeiiio aeiiii?/iiio ?inoeooo? (IAeA?)
I?i?noa?noaa Aeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie (i. Ee?a)
Iaoeiaee ea??aiee – eaiaeeaeao aeiiii?/ieo iaoe, noa?oee iaoeiaee
ni?a?ia?oiee,
?aaeieeiiaa ??eia Ieoaee?aia
caa?aeoth/a naeoi?ii iaoe?iiaeueieo ?aooie?a ? ?ic?iaee i?ia?ai ?icaeoeo
aeiiii?ee (Iaoeiai-aeine?aeiee aeiiii?/iee ?inoeooo I?i?noa?noaa
aeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie, i. Ee?a).
Io?oe?ei? iiiiaioe – aeieoi? aeiiii?/ieo iaoe, i?ioani?,
Iaianthe A?ii?neaa sseiae/
canooiiee caa?aeoth/iai a?aeae?eii aiae?co oa i?iaiicoaaiiy nioe?aeueii
– aeiiii?/iiai ?icaeoeo (Eaa?iao I?i?no??a Oe?a?ie);
– eaiaeeaeao aeiiii?/ieo iaoe,
Ieoaeee/aiei Na?a?e TH??eiae/
ia/aeueiee oi?aae?iiy i?iaiicoaaiiy eo?niai? iie?oeee (Iaoe?iiaeueiee
Aaie Oe?a?ie).
I?ia?aeia i?aai?caoe?y – ?inoeooo aeiiii?/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy IAI
Oe?a?ie, a?aeae?e iiaeaethaaiiy oa ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy (i.
Ee?a).
Caoeno a?aeaoaeaoueny ” 20 ” o?aaiy 1999 ?. i 12-00 aiaeei? ia
can?aeaii? niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee Ae 26.801.01 ii caoenoo
aeena?oaoe?? ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy aeieoi?a aeiiii?/ieo iaoe
Iaoeiai-aeine?aeiiai aeiiii?/iiai ?inoeoooo I?i?noa?noaa aeiiii?ee
Oe?a?ie oa Iaoeiai-aeine?aeiiai aeiiii?/iiai ?inoeoooo
nioe?aeueii-aeiiii?/ieo i?iaeai i?noa Ee?aa (252601, INI, i. Ee?a-103
aoeueaap Aepoaeae iapiae?a, 28, 5-e iiaa?o, cae can?aeaiue).
C aeena?oaoe??th iiaeia iciaeiieoenue o iaoeia?e a?ae?ioaoe? IAeA?
I?i?noa?noaa aeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie.
Aaoi?aoa?ao ?ic?neaiee 19 ea?oiy 1999 ?.
A/aiee nae?aoa?
niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee
A.A.Aaceethe
1. Caaaeueia oa?aeoa?enoeea aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe
Aeooaeuei?noue aeine?aeaeaiiy. ?c aoiaeaeaiiyi Oe?a?ie a na?oiaa
ni?aoiaa?enoai ye naiino?eii? aea?aeaae ia’?eoeaii aeieeea
iaiao?aei?noue aeei?enoiaoaaoe aeey ioe?iee aeiiii?/ii? ae?yeueiino?
aaeaeaaoi? na?oia?e i?aeoeoe? iieacieee. C oe??th iaoith a Oe?a?i?
cai?iaaaeaeo?oueny nenoaia iaoe?iiaeueiiai ?ao?aieoeoaa a ?aieao
aeeiiaiiy Aea?aeaaii? i?ia?aie ia?aoiaeo iae?eo ? ca?oiino? ia na?oia?
canaaee, a oaeiae a?aei?aoeueiao?oueny iaoiaee/ia i?ae??oioy aeey
aiae?oe/ieo ? i?iaiicieo ?ic?iaie iae?iaeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a, a ia?oo
/a?ao aaeiaiai aioo??oiueiai i?iaeoeoo ye ocaaaeueithth/iai iieacieea
?acoeueoao?a aeiiii?/ii? ae?yeueiino? e?a?ie. Oai?aoe/i? ? iaoiaee/i?
ieoaiiy oi?ioaaiiy aaeiaiai aioo??oiueiai i?iaeoeoo aena?oeththoueny a
i?aoeyo aaaaoueio ca?oa?aeieo aaoi??a.
Oe? ?ic?iaee ??oioothoueny ia iaoiaeieia?? iaoe?iiaeueiiai ?ao?aieoeoaa,
ui ?ic?iaeaia i?ae aa?aeith I?aai?caoe?? Ia’?aeiaieo Iaoe?e, ? aaaaoueio
iaoiae?a ? iiaeaeae, ui canoiniaothoueny a ??cieo e?a?iao c ?eieiaith
aeiiii?eith. ?acii c oei, ?acoeueoaoe oe??? ?iaioe ia caaaeaee
aaeaeaaoii a?aeia?aaeathoue ?aaeueio ae?eni?noue, ai a?eueo?noue oeeo
iaoiae?a ? iiaeaeae aacothoueny ia a?aooaaii? oaiaeaioe?? caaeainiaaii?
aeiiii?/ii? nenoaie, yea iaa?oue o e?ecia? ia??iaee caeeoa?oueny aeiaie?
noaa?eueiith.
O a?o/eciyi?e iaooe? ieoaiiyie aecia/aiiy ? i?iaiicoaaiiy
ocaaaeueithth/eo iieaciee?a aeiiii?/ii? ae?yeueiino? a nenoai?
iaoe?iiaeueiiai ?ao?aieoeoaa caeiathoueny aeaaeai?ee: Aa?oeue A.I.,
Eoe?iia ?.?.; a/ai? aeiiii?noe: Aan?ae?i A.O., Iaianthe A.ss., Iaoiaiei
A.?., Iaeaiaae I.ss., Ieea A.?., ?aaeieeiiaa ?.I., E?th/eiaa ?.A.
Aiaeii/an aiae?c iaoeiaeo i?aoeue, ui aeine?aeaeothoue iaoiaee/iee
a?naiae oa ?ino?oiaioa??e i?iaiicoaaiiy aaeiaiai aioo??oiueiai
i?iaeoeoo, na?ae/eoue i?i iaaeinoaoi? aena?oeaiiy i?iaeai i?iaiicoaaiiy
iae?iiieaciee?a aeey aeiiii?ee, ui ia?aaoaa? a noai? nenoaiii?
o?ainoi?iaoe??, ?icaaeainiaaieo aeiiii?/ieo i?ioean?a, ia ia? ua
aaaaoueio iciae ?icaeiooiai ?eieiaiai ainiiaea?noaa. ?acii c oei
oaeineiiaeaiiy iaoiaee/iiai caaacia/aiiy i?iaiicieo ?ic?iaie aaeiaiai
aioo??oiueiai i?iaeoeoo (AAI) ? iaaaeueiith i?iaeaiith aeey
iaa?oiooaaiiy ?acoeueoaoeaii? aeiiii?/ii? iie?oeee aea?aeaae,
?ic?aooie?a athaeaeaoo, a?aei?aoethaaiiy iaoiae?a aea?aeaaiiai
?aaoethaaiiy aeiiii?ee. Aeooaeuei?noue oa aaaii?noue oeeo i?iaeai
iaoiiaeee aea?? oaie aeena?oaoe?eiiai aeine?aeaeaiiy.
Ca’ycie ?iaioe c iaoeiaeie i?ia?aiaie, ieaiaie, oaiaie. Iaoa??aee
aeine?aeaeaiiy aoei aeei?enoaii i?e aeeiiaii? ianooiieo iaoeiai –
aeine?aeieo oai, ui aeeiioaaeenue a IAeA? I?iaeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie ia
caiiaeaiiy I?i?noa?noaa aeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie:
1-96.2 “?ic?iaea iaoiaee/ieo ?aeiiaiaeaoe?e aei i?iaiicoaaiiy
aeiiii?/iiai ? nioe?aeueiiai ?icaeoeo Oe?a?ie ia na?aaeiueino?ieiao
ia?niaeoeao”;
1-96.3 “?ic?iaea i?iaiico aeiiii?/iiai ? nioe?aeueiiai ?icaeoeo Oe?a?ie
ia 1997 – 2000 ?iee”;
28-96.1 “?ic?iaea iaoiae?a ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy ?
i?aeaioiaea uieaa?oaeueieo iaeyae?a ? i?iaiic?a ?icaeoeo Oe?a?ie”;
16-97 “?ic?iaea iaoeiai – iaoiaee/ieo ?aeiiaiaeaoe?e uiaei oaeoi?iiai
aiae?co oa i?aeaioiaea uieaa?oaeueieo iaeyae?a, iaoai?ci?a
iiia?aaeaeaiiy aeieeiaiiy iaaaoeaieo oaiaeaioe?e aeiiii?/iiai ?icaeoeo”.
15-95 “?ic?iaea iaoiaeeee ia/eneaiiy aaeiai? aeiaeaii? aa?oino? ?a??iio”
ia caiiaeaiiy I?i?noa?noaa noaoenoeee Oe?a?ie (aeiaia?? ? 034 a?ae 2
n?/iy 1995?.) ii ?icae?eo Aea?aeaaii? i?ia?aie ia?aoiaeo Oe?a?ie ia
i?aeia?iaeio nenoaio iae?eo ? noaoenoeee “Noai?aiiy nenoaie
iaoe?iiaeueieo ?aooie?a”
Ai?iaaoe?y ?acoeueoao?a aeena?oaoe??. I?eioeeiia? iieiaeaiiy ?iaioe
ai?iaiaaii i?e i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooieao a Aieiaiiio oi?aae?ii?
iae?iaeiiii?/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy I?i?noa?noaa aeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie.
Iaoa ? caaea/? aeine?aeaeaiiy. Iaoith aeena?oaoe?eiiai aeine?aeaeaiiy ?
?ic?iaea iaoiaee/ieo iniia i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI aeey aeiiii?ee ia?ao?aeiiai
ia??iaeo c ?o ai?iaaoe??th a no/ani?e aeiiii?/i?e i?aeoeoe? ia aac?
a?aooaaiiy e?eciaiai noaio aeiiii?ee oa iaiao?aeiino? ?aoi?ioaaiiy
aeiiii?/iiai na?aaeiaeua a Oe?a?i?.
A?aeiia?aeii aei iaoe aeine?aeaeaiiy a aeena?oaoe?ei?e ?iaio? aoee
iinoaaeai? ? ae??oai? oae? caaea/?:
· aiae?c iaoiaeieia?/ieo canaae oi?ioaaiiy AAI a nenoai? iaoe?iiaeueiiai
?ao?aieoeoaa;
· ioe?iea i?noey ? ?ie? i?iaiicieo iieaciee?a AAI a
ia??oiooaaii? oi?aae?inueeeo ??oaiue;
· ia??oiooaaiiy eiioeaiooaeueieo i?eioeei?a ?ic?iaee iaoiaee/ieo iniia
i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI a Oe?a?i?;
· ocaaaeueiaiiy oa ioe?iea ?nioth/iai iaoiaee/iiai ?ino?oiaioa??th aeey
i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI c iaoith canoinoaaiiy ie?aieo eiai iieiaeaiue aeey
?ic?iaee iaoiaeeee i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI Oe?a?ie;
· ?ic?iaea iiaeaeueiiai aia?aoo aeey i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI ca oiia
ia?ao?aeiiai ia??iaeo ia iniia? canoinoaaiiy iaoiaeieia?? nenoaie
iaoe?iiaeueiiai ?ao?aieoeoaa;
· aeine?aeaeaiiy aieeao ?ioeyoe?eieo i?ioean?a ia aeeiai?eo ?aaeueiiai
AAI;
· aeine?aeaeaiiy aeiiii?/ieo ia?aaeoiia oi?ioaaiiy AAI o i?iaiiciiio
ia??iae? ? ia??oiooaaiiy ??aiy iieaciee?a – ?aaoeyoi??a, ui
aecia/athoueny caaaeaiiyie aeiiii?/ii? iie?oeee aea?aeaae;
· ?ic?iaea i?iaiico AAI Oe?a?ie ia ei?ioeino?ieiaee ia??iae ?
na?aaeiueino?ieiao ia?niaeoeao ia iniia? aeei?enoaiiy cai?iiiiiaaii?
iiaeae?, ioe?iea aeinoia??iino? oa aiae?c ?acoeueoao?a i?iaiicoaaiiy,
aecia/aiiy ?ecee?a ?aae?caoe?? i?iaiico.
Iaoeiaa iiaecia aeine?aeaeaiiy. A i?ioean? i?iaaaeaiiai aaoi?ii
aeena?oaoe?eiiai aeine?aeaeaiiy io?eiaii ianooii? ?acoeueoaoe, ui
noaiiaeyoue eiai iaoeiao iiaecio:
· Ia??oioiaai? eiioeaiooaeuei? i?eioeeie ?ic?iaee iaoiaee/ieo iniia
i?iaiicoaaiiy aaeiaiai aioo??oiueiai i?iaeoeoo a Oe?a?i? ye?
iieyaathoue: a iaiao?aeiino? a?aooaaiiy oiia ianoaa?eueiino?
aeiiii?/iiai ?icaeoeo ia ia?ao?aeiiio aoai?; caaeainiaaiino? iiieoo ?
i?iiiceoe?? a aeiiii?oe?; a?aeia?aaeaii? iiaeaoeiaiai iaaaioaaeaiiy ia
ae?iaieoeoai oa iaiao?aeiino? eiai ?aaoethaaiiy; ciaioaii? ??aiy
ao?o/aiiy aea?aeaae o ia?a?iciiae?e AAI; iaiao?aeiino? i?aeo?eiaiiy
iai?iiiai eo?no a?eai? a iaaeao, ye? a ni?eyee ?icaeoeo a?o/eciyiiai
oiaa?iae?iaieea; a?aeia?aaeaii? nooiaiy ?aoi?iiaaiino? aeiiii?ee, ui
aeeth/a? ?inoeoooe?ei? ia?aoai?aiiy, ?icaeoie iaeiai ? na?aaeiueiai
a?ciano, iieaaoaiy oiia aoiaeaeaiiy a ?eiie; a?aooaaii? i?aeaeuaiiy
??aiy aeeooy ianaeaiiy.
· ?ic?iaeaii iiao aeiiiiao?e/io iiaeaeue, i?ecia/aio aeey
iieaa?oaeueiiai i?iaiicoaaiiy ?aaeueiiai AAI, ui aaco?oueny ia
iaoiaeieia?? iaoe?iiaeueiiai ?ao?aieoeoaa, caaeainiaaiino? iiieoo oa
i?iiiceoe?? ? a?aooaaii? ?aaoethth/iai aieeao aea?aeaaii? aeiiii?/ii?
iie?oeee. Caaaeaiiy aeiiii?/ii? iie?oeee a?aoiaothoueny /a?ac aeciaaii?
ci?ii?, aei yeeo a?aeianaii: ??aaiue aea?aeaaieo aeo?ao, ??aaiue
iiiaeaoeoaaiiy, oaiie c?inoaiiy ?aaeueieo a?ioiaeo aeioiae?a ianaeaiiy,
?aaeueiee iai?iiee eo?n, ??aaiue iiiaoecaoe?? aeiiii?ee.
· Ae?noaa iiaeaeueoiai ?icaeoeo ii?yaeie aecia/aiiy aeciaaiieo ci?iieo
ca oiia ianoaa?eueiino? aeiiii?ee ia ia?ao?aeiiio aoai?, yeee iieyaa? a
oiio, ui oe? ci?ii? caaeathoueny ye oe?eueia?, aai iathoue
caeiiiaeaa/ee oa?aeoa? aecia/aiiy ? ? iaea?eueo aaaeeeaeie ?iaeeeaoi?aie
noaio iae?iaeiiii?/iiai na?aaeiaeua.
· ?ic?iaeaii iiaee iaoiaee/iee i?aeo?ae aei i?iaiicoaaiiy ?aaeueiiai AAI
ii i?nyoeyo, ui aaco?oueny ia a?ao?/iiio aecia/aii? aeeiai?ee AAI a
caeaaeiino? a?ae ?icaeoeo iniiaieo aaeocae ae?iaieoeoaa oiaa??a –
i?iieneiaino?, n?euenueeiai ainiiaea?noaa, aoae?aieoeoaa, yeee ?
aeiiiaiaiiyi aei iiaeaeueieo ?ic?aooie?a ? aeicaiey? ?o aeaoae?coaaoe ia
iniia? a?aooaaiiy iniaeeainoae iii?ny/ii? aeeiai?ee ? naciiiiai
oa?aeoa?o ae?iaieoeoaa.
· I?iiiio?oueny aaeaioiaaia aei oe?a?inueeeo oiia eiaa?eoi?/ia ooieoe?y,
i?ecia/aia aeey ioe?iee aieeao ?ioeyoe?eieo i?ioean?a ia c?inoaiiy
?aaeueiiai AAI Oe?a?ie, ui io?eiaia ia iniia? ia?iaee noaoenoe/ii?
?ioi?iaoe?? uiaei ?aaeueiiai AAI ? ?ioeyoe?? ii 22o e?a?iao, ye?
i?ieoee ia??iae aeiiii?/iiai niaaeo oa a?ia??ioeyoe??.
· I?iaaaeaia ai?iaaoe?y cai?iiiiiaaiiai iiaeaeueiiai aia?aoo a i?ioean?
?ic?iaee ei?ioeino?ieiaiai (ia 1999 ??e) ? na?aaeiueino?ieiaiai ia
ia??iae aei 2003 ?ieo i?iaiico AAI Oe?a?ie oa eiai neeaaeiaeo ca
eaoaai??yie ae?iaieoeoaa ? aeei?enoaiiy c a?aooaaiiyi ia??oioiaaieo
iai?yie?a, oe?eae ? caaaeaiue aeiiii?/ii? iie?oeee. Aecia/aii ?eceee
aeeiiaiiy ?aae?noe/iiai noeaia??th ?icaeoeo Oe?a?ie, iia’ycai? c ??ciith
aeeiai?eith ? ni?yiiaai?noth i?ioean?a ?aoi?ioaaiiy aeiiii?/iiai
na?aaeiaeua.
Iniaenoee aianie caeiaoaa/a. Aeena?oaoe?eia ?iaioa ? cae?i/aiei
naiino?eii aeeiiaiei aeine?aeaeaiiyi, yea ia? iaoeiaa ? i?aeoe/ia
cia/aiiy. An? ae?oeiaai? ?iaioe iioae?eiaai? aaoi?ii iniaenoi aac
ni?aaaoi??a.
Ioae?eaoe?? ca ?acoeueoaoaie aeine?aeaeaiiy. Iniiai? iieiaeaiiy
aeena?oaoe?? a?aeia?aaeai? a 4 iaeiiin?aieo ioae?eaoe?yo o iaoeiaeo
oaoiaeo aeaeaiiyo caaaeueiei ianyaii 1,5 ae?oeiaaieo a?eoo?a.
2. Iniiai? iieiaeaiiy aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe
2.1 I?ioean i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI, oiaoi aecia/aiiy eiai iii?iaeueii?
aaee/eie, aeeiai?ee oa no?oeoo?e, caii/aoeiaaiee a Oe?a?i? c 90-o ?ie?a
c iaoith ia?aooieo ?acoeueoao?a aeiiii?/ii? ae?yeueiino?,
ia?aaeaa/oaaieo a caeaaeiino? a?ae iayaieo ?ano?n?a oa aoaeoeaiino? ?o
aeei?enoaiiy i?e ?aaoethth/?e ?ie? aea?aeaae.
I?iaiic ? oeeo?iaei ae?acii i/?eoaaieo ?acoeueoao?a aeiiii?/ii?
iie?oeee, io?eiaieo ca oiia ?aae?caoe?? ia?aaeaa/oaaieo caoiae?a, ui
aacothoueny ia aeei?enoaii? aecia/aieo aaaeae?a ? cania?a a ??cieo
noa?ao aeiiii?/ii? ae?yeueiino?. Iaoa i?iaiico iieyaa? a noai?aii?
oyaeaiue i?i iiaeeea? aa??aioe aeiiii?/iiai ?icaeoeo, ca oeo /e ?ioeo
i?eiouaiue, eiioeaio?aoe?? oaaae ia iaaaaeaieo i?ioeanao oa ?ioi?ioaaii?
O?yaeo i?i aeueoa?iaoeai? oeyoe iiaeaeueoeo ae?e c iaoith ia?aeiio
iaaaoeaieo oaiaeaioe?e. Iniaeeai aaaeeeaei ? i?iaiic AAI aeey
ia??oiooaaiiy aeioiae?a ? aeo?ao athaeaeaoo, iiiaoa?ieo iieaciee?a,
aeinyaiaiiy ? i?aeo?eiee a?aeiia?aeieo i?iii?oe?e o ?icaeoeo aeiiii?ee,
iiooeo aeaea?ae aeiiii?/iiai c?inoaiiy, ae??oaiiy nioe?aeueieo i?iaeai
noni?euenoaa. A caeaaeiino? a?ae yeino? ? aeinoia??iino? i?iaiicieo
?ic?aooie?a o aaeee?e i??? caeaaeaoue i?eeiyooy no?aoaa?/ieo ??oaiue
uiaei aeiiii?/iiai ?icaeoeo iaoi? aea?aeaae. Oiio i?iaiici? ?ic?aooiee
AAI ia noaae?yo (ae?iaieoeoaa ? aeei?enoaiiy) c a?aooaaiiyi
caaeainiaaiino? iiieoo ? i?iiiceoe?? iathoue ae??oaeueia cia/aiiy ?
ni?eythoue ia??oiooaaiith o?yaeiaeo ??oaiue o iaeaaaeeea?oeo noa?ao
aeiiii?/iiai ? nioe?aeueiiai ?icaeoeo.
2.2 Aiae?c AAI ca 1990-1997??. aeicaieea aecia/eoe iniiai? no?oeoo?i?
i?iii?oe?? oa oaiaeaioe?? ?icaeoeo aeiiii?ee ia??iaeo nenoaiii?
o?ainoi?iaoe??.
O ae?iaieoeoa? AAI iaa?iiaaeaeoaaeenue aeeni?iii?oe?? i?ae ?icaeoeii
ne?iaeiieo aaeocae ? aaeocae, ui aeioneathoue e?ioeaaee i?iaeoeo,
aeioneii oiaa??a ? iineoa. Ni?aa?aeiioaiiy i?ae aaeiaei aeioneii ?
i?ii?aeiei niiaeeaaiiyi, aeioneii ? aaeiaith aeiaeaiith aa?o?noth,
aaeiaith aeiaeaiith aa?o?noth ? i?ii?aeiei niiaeeaaiiyi na?ae/aoue i?i
cieaeaiiy aoaeoeaiino?, ?acoeueoaoeaiino? ? a?aeaea/? cao?ao a
aeiiii?oe?.
2.3 ?acii c oei o ae?iaieoeoa? iai?oeeanue oaiaeaioe?y aei nooo?aiai
nei?i/aiiy ?ia?oe?? iaae?iiy, c?inoaiiy ae?iaieoeoaa a ie?aieo aaeocyo ?
noa?ao aeiiii?ee, ui ca oiia iaaeniei? ?ioeyoe?? na?ae/eoue i?i
iie?aoaiiy i?enoiniaaiino? i?aei?e?inoa aei ae?yeueiino? ca oiia ?eieo.
2.4 AAI ca eaoaai??yie aeioiae?a a?aeia?aaea? i?iii?oe?? i?ae iieaoith
i?aoe? ? aeioiaeaie a?ciano, a oaeiae aaaii?noue ? ni?yiiaai?noue aieeao
?ano?n?a aea?aeaae ia oiaa?iae?iaieea. I?iii?oe?y i?ae iieaoith i?aoe?
iaeiaieo i?aoe?aiee?a ? aeioiaeaie a?ciano na?ae/eoue i?i nooi?iue
nioe?aeueii? ni?yiiaaiino? a aeiiii?/i?e iie?oeoe? aea?aeaae, noai
aii?oecaoe?eii? iie?oeee. ?acii c oei o AAI ia ciaoiaeyoue
a?aeia?aaeaiiy i?ioeane iineeaiiy nioe?aeueii? iai?oaeaiino? o
noni?euenoa?, iia’ycai? ?c caai?aiaai?noth ii ca?ia?oi?e ieao?, iain?yo
? aeiiiiiaao. Aiae?c aioo??oiuei? no?oeoo?e aaeiaiai i?eaooeo na?ae/eoue
i?i cia/io ?ieue aeioiae?a a?ae ia ei?ii?aoeaieo i?aei?e?inoa ca oiia
aeiiii?/ii? e?ece, ui aenooia? ye aeiiiaiaiiy aei iaaeinoaoiueiai ??aiy
a?ioiaeo aeioiae?a aeiiaoi?o ainiiaea?noa. Ia oe?e noaae?? aeiiii?/iiai
iai?ioo ia a?aeia?aaea?oueny noeoiia iiaeaoeiaa iaaaioaaeaiiy, ai
iiaeaoee ia aeioiae ? iaeii ia aeae?eythoueny c aaeiaiai i?eaooeo ia
a?cian, a i?eaooeiaee iiaeaoie — c iieaoe i?aoe? iaeiaieo i?aoe?aiee?a.
E??i oiai, noeoiia iiaeaoeiaa iaaaioaaeaiiy iiaeiii aeeth/aoe oaeiae
a?ae?aooaaiiy ia nioe?aeueia no?aooaaiiy ( ye ia?aooaaiiy ia ca?ia?oio
ieaoo). Ca aeaieie aiae?co, noeoiia iiaeaoeiaa iaaaioaaeaiiy ia
ae?iaieoeoai c?inei c 24,4 a?aen. aei AAI o 1990?. aei 45.9 a?aen. o
1997 ?.
2.5 Aeine?aeaeaiiy no?oeoo?e AAI ca eaoaai??yie aeei?enoaiiy aeicaiey?
ioe?ieoe iaeio ?c iaeaieiai?oeo i?iii?oe?e a aeiiii?oe? – i?ae
niiaeeaaiiyi ? iaa?iiaaeaeaiiyi. Oae, ca ia??iae c 1990 ?ieo aaeiaa
iaa?iiaaeaeaiiy a no?oeoo?? AAI nei?ioeeiny c 25,4 a?aen. aei 18,3
a?aen. o 1997 ?ioe?. Oey oaiaeaioe?y noi?iaiaeaeoaaeanue aeeaeiieie
ci?iaie aioo??oiuei? no?oeoo?e iaa?iiaaeaeaiiy. Aeineoue aeniea
ii??aiyii c ?ioeie c ?ioeie e?a?iaie /anoea aaeiaiai iaa?iiaaeaeaiiy
oi?ioaaeanue cia/iith i??ith ca ?aooiie aeo?ao ia eai?oaeueiee ?aiiio
i?e aaeueioth/iio aieea? aenieeo i?ioeaioieo noaaie ? ianoaa?eueiiai
caeiiiaeaanoaa ia i?ioean ?iaanooaaiiy. Ca aeaieo oiia iaaeinoaoi?
iiaeeeaino? aioo??oiueiai ?iaanooaaiiy ciaiooaaeeny /a?ac a?ae’?iia
naeueaei iioi/ieo iia?aoe?e ieao?aeiiai aaeaino, ui ni?e/eieei
nei?i/aiiy aaeiaeo caiuaaeaeaiue.
2.6 Ia iniia? ocaaaeueiaiiy ?nioth/eo iaoiae?a i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI oa
aiae?co ?acoeueoao?a i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooie?a, aeeiiaieo a Oe?a?i? ??cieie
iaoeiaeie oa aea?aeaaieie onoaiiaaie, ?iicaiieie eiinoeueoaoeaieie
a?oiaie, niaoe?ae?noaie i?aeia?iaeieo i?aai?caoe?e, a aeena?oaoe??
c?iaeaii aeniiaie, ui aeey io?eiaiiy a?eueo ia??oioiaaieo ?acoeueoao?a
i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooie?a AAI aeey aeiiii?ee ia??iaeo nenoaiii?
o?ainoi?iaoe?? iaaeinoaoiuei aeei?enoiaoaaoe ?nioth/? (o?aaeeoe?ei?)
iaoiaee ? iiaeae?, ye? aei oiai ae i?enoiniaai? aieiaiei /eiii aeey
noaa?eueii? aeiiii?ee. Oea iia’ycaii c ia aaeaeaaoi?noth a?aeia?aaeaiiy
ieie ?aaeueieo aeiiii?/ieo i?ioean?a. Oae, i?e aeei?enoaii? ae?iaie/i?
ooieoe??, aea aieiaieie /eiieeaie ? i?aoey ? eai?oae, ?acoeueoaoe
?ic?aooie?a niioai?ththoueny /a?ac cia/ia i?eoiaaia aac?ia?ooy oa
o?oaeiiu? c ioe?ieith yeino? iayaieo iniiaieo ae?iaie/eo oiiae?a.
Canoinoaaiiy o aaaaoueio iiaeaeyo i?ioeaioii? noaaee ye iaeiiai c
iniiaieo ?aaoeyoi??a aeiiii?ee iaoiiaeth?oueny ?? aaaiiei aieeaii ia
ae?iaieoeoai. Ci?ia oeueiai iieacieea iaa?oue ia aeae?eueea a?aenioeiaeo
ioieoe i?ecaiaeeoue aei cia/ieo ia?aoie?a eai?oaeo i?ae o?iainiaith
noa?ith ? ?aaeueiei naeoi?ii. ?acii c oei a Oe?a?i? i?ioeaioia noaaea
ci?ith?oueny a iaaeao ?ieo ia cia/ii a?eueo? aaee/eie, aea /a?ac
i?aaiao iaaecia/ai?noue, aeiiii?/io ianoaa?euei?noue, a?aenooi?noue
aiaaiaiino? a iaeaooiueiio oea ia i?ecaiaeeoue aei aaeaeaaoii?
?aaeoe?? a ?iaanoeoe?ei?e noa??.
2.7 Ia iniia? aeniiae?a i?iaaaeaiiai aiae?co, ocaaaeueiaiiy ? ioe?iee
?nioth/eo iaoiae?a ? iiaeaeae i?iaiicoaaiiy a aeena?oaoe?? i?iiiio?oueny
iiaeaeueiee aia?ao aeey i?iaiicoaaiiy ?aaeueiiai AAI, caniiaaiee ia
ii?aeiaii? ? o?ainoi?iaoe?? iiaeae? Aiena-Aeaeaie?ina ? iaoiae?a
aaaaoioaeoi?iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy. ?ic?iaeaia a aeena?oaoe?? iiaeaeue,
aaco?oueny ia iieaa?oaeueieo aeaieo ? neeaaea?oueny c aeaaaeoeyoe
aiaeiaaiieo ci?iieo (aeaa’yoe ??aiyiue ? iaeeiaaeoeyoe oioiaeiinoae), oa
i’yoe aeciaaiieo ci?iieo, ye? iienothoue iniiai? caeaaeiino?
iaoe?iiaeueii? aeiiii?ee.
Aiaeiaaii? ci?ii?
??aiyiiy iiaeae?:
(AAeAI?) = 0.5756* (AAeAI?(-2)) – 0.0409* (*I(-1)) + 0.1747* (A(-3)) +
+ 0.1742* (?I(-4)) + 0.1413* (?IA(-4)) + 0.969 (MA(3))
(AAeAAOAe) = 0.735 * (AAeAAOAe(-4)) + 0.4182 * (?IA(-4)) – 0.0294 *
(*I(-2)) +
+(0.793 (AR(4)) + 0.0971 (MA(3)))
(AAeANA) = 0.881 * (AAeANA(-4)) + 0.561 * (NA) + 0.367 * (NA(-4)) –
– 0.0227 * (*I(-1)) – 0.357 (AR(4))
(AAeAOC) = 0.235 * (AAeANA(-1)) + 0.598 * (?Ae(-2)) + 0.618 *
(AAeAI?(-2)) + +(0.663(AR(4)) + 0.917 (MA(4)))
(AAeAIA) = 0.2189 * (AAeAIA(-3)) + 0.384 * (AAeANA(-4)) + 0.226 *
(?Ae(-4)) +
+0.941 * (NAAe(-1)) – 0.0189 * (*I(-2)) + (-0.311(AR(4)) – 0.971
(MA(3)))
(AAeAII) = 0.1737 * (AAeAIA(-1)) + 0.342 * (AAeAAOAe(-4)) +
+ 0.0643 * (AAeANA(-2)) – 0.0148 * (*I(-2)) + (0.189 (AR(4)) + 0.971
(MA(3)))
(?IA) = 0.927 * (NAAe(0)) + 0.810 * (?Ae(-1)) + 0.191* (I_2(-2)) +
0.35 * (AAeAI?(-6))
(A) = 0.571 * (AAeAI?(-3)) + 0.030 * (AAeANA(-3)) + 0.534 * (EIA(-3))
+
+ (-0.487 (AR(3)) -0.899 (MA(3)))
(?I) = 0.536 * (A) + 0.892 * (AAeAI?) – 0.088 * (EIA(-1)) +
+ (-0.111 (AR(1)) + 0.893(MA(3))) ,
aeaCi?ii? iiaeae? o ii??aiyieo oe?iao, iei.a?i. – i?e??no eiaa?eoia
a?ae aaeiai? aeiaeaii? aa?oino? ?-i? aaeoc? oa neeaaeiaeo iiieoo,
a?aeiia?aeii;AAeAI? – aaeiaa aeiaeaia aa?o?noue i?iieneiaino?;AAeAAOAe
– aaeiaa aeiaeaia aa?o?noue aoae?aieoeoaa;AAeANA –aaeiaa aeiaeaia
aa?o?noue n?euenueeiai ainiiaea?noaa;AAeAOC – aaeiaa aeiaeaia aa?o?noue
o?ainii?oo ? ca’yceo;AAeAIA – aaeiaa aeiaeaia aa?o?noue aaeocae noa?e
ia?ao;AAeAII – aaeiaa aeiaeaia aa?o?noue iaiaoa??aeueieo iineoa;?IA –
?iaanoeoe??;A – aenii?o oiaa??a ? iineoa;?I – ?iii?o oiaa??a ?
iineoa;AR, MA – aeiaaeeiaa ? o?aiaeiaa neeaaeia? aeeiai?/iiai ?yaeo,
iaoiae “Aiena — Aeaeaie?ina” (ARIMA iaoiae).Oioiaeiino?:
*I=AAI*(*I? / 100)
*II= *I*0,3
I_2=(@movsum(AAI,4))*(I? / 100)
log (NAI / NAI(-4)) = log (?Ae / ?Ae(-4))
log (?Ae / ?Ae(-4))= ??Ae
NAAe=AAI*AeA? / 100
NA =NAI+NAAe
OA=A-?I
AAIA?=AAeANA+AAeAIA+AAeAOC+AAeAI?+AAeAAOAe+AAeAII+ *II
AAIAE =(NA+?IA+OA)
AAI=( AAIA?+ AAIAE) / 2 ,
aeaCi?ii? iiaeae? o ii??aiyieo oe?iao, iei.a?i.*I – caaaeueia
iiiaeaoeoaaiiy aeiiii?ee;*II – /eno? iiaeaoee ia i?iaeoeoe oa ?iii?o;I_2
– a?ioiaa iana;@movsum(AAI,4) – ?ooiia noia ??/iiai AAI;?Ae – ?aaeuei?
aeioiaee ianaeaiiy;NA – e?ioeaa? niiaeea/? aeo?aoe, anueiai;NAI –
e?ioeaa? niiaeea/? aeo?aoe aeiiaoi?o ainiiaea?noa (i?eaaoi?);NAAe –
e?ioeaa? niiaeea/? aeo?aoe naeoi?o caaaeueiiai aea?aeaaiiai
oi?aae?iiy;OA –naeueaei oi?aiaaeueiiai aaeaino;AAIAE –niiaeea/ee oa
?iaanoeoe?eiee iiieo; AAIA? –i?iiiceoe?y e?ioeaai? i?iaeoeoe??
(ae?iaieoeoai aaeiai? aeiaeaii? aa?oino? ca aaeocyi aeiiii?ee);AAI
–??aiiaaaeiee AAI.Aeciaaii? ci?ii?:
*I? –??aaiue iiiaeaoeoaaiiy aeiiii?eeAeA? –??aaiue aea?aeaaieo
aeo?ao??Ae –oaiie c?inoaiiy ?aaeueieo a?ioiaeo aeioiae?a ianaeaiiyEIA
–?aaeueiee iai?iiee eo?n a?eai?I? –??aaiue iiiaoecaoe??C iaoith
a?aeia?aaeaiiy ?aae?e ia?ao?aeiiai aoaio ?icaeoeo oe?a?inueei? aeiiii?ee
a?aoiaaia aeiiaa aeeth/aiiy aei neeaaeo aeciaaiieo ci?iieo eeoa oeo
iieaciee?a, ye? ia iiaeooue aooe ?acoeueoaoaie i?iaiico. Aeciaaiieie
ci?iieie a iiaeae? ? iieacieee, ui aecia/athoueny caeiiiaeaa/i aai ?
?acoeueoaoii ?aae?caoe?? aeiiii?/ii? iie?oeee: ??aaiue aea?aeaaieo
aeo?ao (AeA?, o a?aenioeao aei AAI), ??aaiue iiiaeaoeoaaiiy aeiiii?ee
(*I?, o a?aenioeao aei AAI), oaiie c?inoaiiy ?aaeueieo a?ioiaeo
aeioiae?a ianaeaiiy (??Ae, o a?aenioeao aei a?aeiia?aeiiai ia??iaeo
iiia?aaeiueiai ?ieo), ?aaeueiee iai?iiee eo?n a?eai? (EIA). Aeey
a?aeia?aaeaiiy aieeao ??cieo iai?yie?a aeiiii?/ii? iie?oeee ia
oi?ioaaiiy AAI, ui ia iathoue e?euee?niiai ae?aco, a iiaeaeue
aaiaeeoueny aeciaaiia ci?iia, yea oa?aeoa?eco? aeeiai?eo ??aiy
iiiaoecaoe?? (I? , o a?aenioeao aei AAI).
Aea?? ??aiy iiiaoecaoe?? ye a?aeiioaiiy a?ioiai? iane aei AAI
iaoiiaeaiee eiai aaaiiei aieeaii ia iiieo, i?iiiceoe?th, iiaeaaaeaiiy
?iaanoeoe?eieo i?ioean?a ? caaaeyee oeueiio ia aeeiai?eo ? no?oeoo?o
AAI. ??aaiue iiiaoecaoe?? ia ii/aoie 1998 ?. neeaaea? eeoa 12 a?aen.
AAI, iaoii?noue a ?icaeiaieo e?a?iao oey /anoea nyaa? 60 a?aen. ?
a?eueoa. Oaeee iacia/iee ianya a?ioae a aeiiii?oe? Oe?a?ie i?ecaiaeeoue
aei aeniei? ?o oe?ie (noaaea ii e?aaeeoao ia ii/aoie 1998 ?ieo a?eueoa
46 a?aen.).
Aeei?enoaiiy aeciaaiieo ci?iieo ea?aeeiaeueii ii?ooo? i?eioeei
caieiaiino? iiaeae? Aiena-Aeaeaie?ina, aea iaoii?noue caaacia/o?
iiaeeea?noue a?aooaaiiy ?aaeueieo oiia oi?ioaaiiy AAI a i?iaiiciiio
ia??iae?.
2.8 Ca ?acoeueoaoii ?ica’ycaiiy iiaeae? ia?aaeaa/aia iiaeeea?noue
io?eiaoe caaeainiaai? ianyae iiieoo oa i?iiiceoe?? a ?aaeueiiio
ia/eneaii? oa ?o no?oeoo?i? neeaaeia?: aaeiao aeiaeaio aa?o?noue ca
aaeocyie aeiiii?ee, aaeia? ?iaanoeoe??, aenii?o oa ?iii?o oiaa??a ?
iineoa; noeoii? e?ioeaa? niiaeea/? aeo?aoe. Iniiai? aca?iica’ycee i?ae
iieacieeaie iiaeae? i?aaenoaaeai? ia ?en.1.
2.9 C iaoith aeaoae?caoe?? i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooie?a AAI ia
ei?ioeino?ieiaee ia??iae a aeena?oaoe?ei?e ?iaio? i?iiiio?oueny
iaoiaee/iee i?aeo?ae, yeee aaco?oueny ia a?aooaaii? iii?ny/ii? aeeiai?ee
?icaeoeo iniiaieo aaeocae aeiiii?ee (i?iieneia?noue, n?euenueea
ainiiaea?noai, aoae?aieoeoai), oa aaaiaeo aaeocaaeo eiao?oe??io?a,
aecia/aieo ca aeiiiiiaith aia?aoo ei?aeyoe?eii-?aa?aneaiiai aiae?co. Ia
iniia? oeeo aeaieo ?ic?aoiaaia ooieoe?y (ia ?en. 2 – “Na?aaei?”), ui
iieno? aeeiai?eo AAI a aeoioeyoeaiiio ia/eneaii? ? aeicaiey? aecia/eoe
?? ia i?iaiiciee ia??iae (??e). I?e oeueiio ia??oioiao?oueny ia?aaaaa
aeei?enoaiiy aeoioeyoeaieo oaii?a ci?ie oeeo iieaciee?a iaae oaiiaie ?o
ci?ie ii a?aeiioaiith aei iiia?aaeiueiai i?nyoey, ai caaacia/o?oueny
iiaeeea?noue a?ao?/iiai cia?aaeaiiy o?aiaoe??, ieiua yei? aoaea
a?aeiia?aeaoe ??aith aeiiii?/iiai ?icaeoeo (ca aeeiai?eith AAI).
2.10 Aeey aecia/aiiy aieeao ?ioeyoe?eieo i?ioean?a ia oi?ioaaiiy
?aaeueiiai AAI Oe?a?ie a aeena?oaoe?? ia iniia? canoinoaaiiy iaoiaeo
ia?ao?anii? ?ioi?iaoe?? ii?aoeueiaaii aeai? uiaei aeeiai?ee ?aaeueiiai
AAI oa ?ioeyoe?? ii 22 e?a?iao (No?aeii? ?a?iie, Aaeo??, NIAe,
Eaoeinueei? Aia?eee), ui
i?ieoee ia??iae aeiiii?/iiai niaaeo ? o?ainoi?iaoe?? i?ioyaii 1992-1997
??., ? i?iiiio?oueny eiaa?eoi?/ia ooieoe?y aeaeo
Y = -0.0412Ln(x)-0.0574*E,
aea Y – i?e??no ?aaeueiiai AAI;
x – i?e??no ?ioeyoe?? (o ?ic?aooieo ??e aei ?ieo).
Aeey iaeneiaeueiiai iaaeeaeaiiy o?a?eoi??? ?aaeueiiai AAI,
ona?aaeiaiiai ii aeacaieo e?a?iao, aei oiia Oe?a?ie ca ?ao?iniaeoeaiee
ia??iae, a ?ic?aooieao ia?aaeaa/aii canoinoaaiiy eiao?oe??ioa
a?aeiia?aeiino? (E=1,41636), yeee aecia/a?oueny iaoiaeii iioei?caoe?? ?
caaeiaieueiy? oiia? i?eiouaiiy uiaei aeeaeie niaaeo oe?a?inueei?
aeiiii?ee.
16
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?en. 2. Oaiaeaioe?? iii?ny/iiai oi?ioaaiiy aeoioeyoeaieo oaii?a ?inoo
?aaeueiiai AAI, o a?aenioeao.
2.12 Iaoiaee/i? ?ic?iaee i?iaiicoaaiiy ?aaeueiiai AAI, aeeiiai? a
aeena?oaoe?eiiio aeine?aeaeaii?, aeiiiaiththoueny ?ic?iaeaie aeaoeyoi?a
c iaoith ia?aoiaeo aei aecia/aiiy AAI a iii?iaeueiiio ia/eneaii?.
I?iaiic aeaoeyoi?a aaco?oueny ia i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooieao iioiaeo oe?i,
?ioeyoe??, a oaeiae aaethoiiai eo?no ? no?oeoo?ieo iieaciee?a
niiaeea/iai oa ?iaanoeoe?eiiai iiieoo.
2.13 Aeei?enoaiiy ?ic?iaeaiiai iiaeaeueiiai aia?aoo caaacia/o?
aeinoaoith aeinoia??i?noue ?acoeueoao?a ?ic?aooie?a caaaeyee
caaeainiaaiino? iieaciee?a iiieoo ? i?iiiceoe??, aea? iiaeeea?noue
ioe?ieoe iane?aeee aea?aeaaiiai aieeao ia ?acoeueoaoe aeiiii?/ii?
ae?yeueiino? ? i?aeaeueoe ia oe?e iniia? ia??oioiaai?noue oi?aae?inueeeo
??oaiue. I?i aeinoia??i?noue i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooie?a na?ae/aoue iacia/i?
?ica?aeiino? i?ae ?ic?aooieiaeie ? oaeoe/ieie cia/aiiyie ?aaeueiiai AAI
o 1997?. (ex post i?iaiic) oa 1998 ?. (?en. 3).
picscalex1100100090000039c0f00000d00790000000000050000000902000000000500
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030000000000
2.14 Ia iniia? aeei?enoaiiy ?ic?iaeaieo aaoi?ii iaoiaee/ieo i?aeoiae?a
a aeena?oaoe?? aeeiiaii i?iaiici? ?ic?aooiee AAI Oe?a?ie oa eiai
no?oeoo?ieo neeaaeiaeo c aieo iiieoo ? i?iiiceoe?? ia ei?ioei (1999 ?.)-
? na?aaeiueino?ieiao ia?niaeoeao aei 2003 ?ieo.
Aa??aioe i?iaiico aacothoueny ia ??ciiio ??ai? aeciaaiieo ci?iieo
(??aaiue aea?aeaaieo aeo?ao, iiiaeaoeoaaiiy, ?aaeueieo aeioiae?a
ianaeaiiy, iiiaoecaoe??, ?aaeueiiai iai?iiiai eo?no), ui ?
a?aeia?aaeaiiyi noeoiiiai aieeao ci?i aeiiii?/ii? iie?oeee oa
oi?aae?inueeeo ??oaiue.
2.15 Ca ?aae?noe/iei aa??aioii a i?iaiiciiio ia??iae? (1999?. — 2003?.)
ia?aaeaa/a?oueny: nei?i/aiiy /anoee aea?aeaaieo aeo?ao c 22,8 a?aen. o
1998 ?ioe? aei 19,8 a?aen. AAI o 2003 ?ioe?, cieaeaiiy ??aiy
iiiaeaoeoaaiiy a?aeiia?aeii c 14,3 a?aen. aei 11,8 a?aen. AAI o 2003
?ioe? (ca iai?yieie iiaeaoeaie), c?inoaiiy ?aaeueieo aeioiae?a ianaeaiiy
ii 2 a?aen. ui??/ii ii/eiath/e c 2001 ?ieo, oa c?inoaiiy ??aiy
iiiaoecaoe?? c 12 a?aen. aei 20 a?aen. ia e?iaoeue i?iaiiciiai ia??iaeo.
Iinooiiaa ?aiiiaoecaoe?y aeiiii?ee a?aeaoaeaoueny caaaeyee e?ea?aeaoe??
aeao?oeeoo athaeaeaoo, ?, ye iane?aeie, caeaoaaeaiiy a?ioae aeey
e?aaeeooaaiiy ?aaeueii? aeiiii?ee.
2.16 Ca i?iaiicieie ?ic?aooieaie aaoi?a a na?aaeiueino?ieia?e
ia?niaeoea? ca 1999-2003??. AAI ca?eueoeoueny ia 8,2 a?aenioea.
(oaaeeoey 1)
C?inoaiiy /anoee ?iaanoeoe?e a no?oeoo?? iiieoo noi?iaiaeaeoaaoeiaoueny
?o ye?niith ci?iith – iiiiaiaiiyi iai?ioieo eioo?a i?aei?e?inoa i?e
cieaeaii? i?ioeaioii? noaaee a 1,5 – 2 ?ace.
Oaaeeoey 1
I?iaiici? iieacieee ?icaeoeo aeiiii?ee ca ?aae?noe/iei aa??aioii
1997 ?.1998 ?.1999 ?.2000 ?.2001 ?.2002 ?.2003 ?.I?e??no AAI o
a?aenioeao-3,2-1,7-1,40,52,33,13,7Ieoiia aaaa o a?aenioeao aei AAI:
Ae?iaieoeoaa oiaa??a43,042,442,843,243,143,243,3 Ae?iaieoeoaa
iineoa44,945,045,745,045,745,946,4Niiaeeaaiiy, o a?aenioeao aei
AAI83,782,381,281.080.379.578.8?iaanoeoe??, o a?aenioeao aei
AAI20,120.722.222.523.023.724.2Naeueaei aenii?oo-?iii?oo, o a?aenioeao
aei AAI-3,8-3.0-3.4-3.5-3.3-3.2-3.0 I?ioeane, ye? a?aeaoaaoeiooueny a
no?oeoo?? iiieoo, iaoeiooue noeioethth/ee aieea aeey ?icaeoeo ?
ye?niiai iie?aoaiiy i?iiiceoe??. Iiceoeai? ci?ie a i?iiiceoe??
iieyaaoeiooue a c?inoaii? /anoee aaeiai? aeiaeaii? aa?oino? a aaeocyo,
ye? iaaeathoue iineoae (o?ainii?o, ca’ycie, noa?a ia?ao, ?io? iineoae).
C?inoaiiy /anoee aaeiai? aeiaeaii? aa?oino? n?euenueeiai ainiiaea?noaa
iia’ycaia c iinooiiaith ?aae?caoe??th eiai aaeeeiai ?ano?niiai
iioaioe?aeo.
Iacia/i? ci?ie ieoiii? aaae i?iieneiaino? a i?iiiceoe?? iia’ycai? c oei,
ui ia i?ioyc? i?iaiiciiai ia??iaeo a?aeaoaaoeiooueny a?ae/ooi?
no?oeoo?i? ci?ie a aaeocyo i?iieneiaino? caaaeyee oe?eani?yiiaaiei ae?yi
O?yaeo ia ?aoi?ioaaiiy oe??? aaeoc?, nooo?aa c?inoaiiy /anoee
i?iaeoeoe?? e?ioeaaiai niiaeeaaiiy, iaoei?iii? ? eiieo?aioiini?iiiaeii?
i?iaeoeoe??.
Ia?aaeaa/oaaia o i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooieao aeeiai?ea AAI a?aoiao?
iaa?iiaaeaeai? a ieioeiio cia/i? aeaoi?iaoe??, ye? ooai?eeenue ca ?iee
iaae?iiy ae?iaieoeoaa. Ae??aithaaiiy ae aeiiii?/ieo aeeni?iii?oe?e aei
?aoe?iiaeueiiai ni?aa?aeiioaiiy iio?aao? ye eioo?a, oae ? /ano, ?
aeoiaeeoue ca iaae? aeine?aeaeoaaiiai ia??iaeo.
AENIIAEE
1. I?iaaaeaiee a aeena?oaoe?ei?e ?iaio? aiae?c iae?iaeiiii?/ii?
neooaoe?? a Oe?a?i? ia i?ioyc? 1990-1997 ??. iieacaa, ui iaaoooy
eiio?ieth iaae ?ioeyoe??th, nei?i/aiiy athaeaeaoiiai aeao?oeeoo,
i?aeo?eiea iai?iiiai eo?no noai?eee iaai? iiceoeai? oiiae aeey aeoiaeo c
aeiiii?/ii? e?ece, ui a?aeia?aaeaeinue a oiia?eueiaii? ?ia?oe??
nei?i/aiiy AAI. Aea iaeii/anii c’yaeeenue iia? /eiieee, ye?
oneeaaeiththoue i?ioean a?aeoai?aiiy ae?iaieoeoaa: c?inoaiiy ciai?oi?o
ai?a?a, caai?aiaai?noue ii aeieaoao ca?ia?oii? ieaoe ? nioe?aeueieo
aeieaoao; aeniea aa?o?noue caeo/aiiy e?aaeeo?a, iaaeinoaoi?e ?icaeoie
?eieiai? ?io?ano?oeoo?e, iacaaeia?eueiee oaoi?/iee ? oaoiieia?/iee noai
i?aei?e?inoa, aeniea nia?aa?o?noue i?iaeoeoe??, e?eca iaieaoaae?a, ui
?icai?ioeanue ye iaaaoeaia ?aaeoe?y aeiiii?ee ia nei?i/aiiy a?ioae a
ia?ao.
2. Ca oiia aeiiii?/ii? e?ece c?inoa? aaaeeea?noue i?iaiicieo
?ic?aooie?a AAI a ca’yceo c oei, ui oeae iieaciee ? i???ioe?ii aeey
i?eeiyooy a?eueoino? no?aoaa?/ieo ??oaiue, ia??oiooaaiiy athaeaeaoo
aea?aeaae oa iiiaoa?ieo iieaciee?a. Eiai no?oeoo?a ca aaeocyie
ae?iaieoeoaa ? iai?yieaie aeei?enoaiiy aeicaiey? noai?eoe
?ioi?iaoe?eia caaacia/aiiy aeey aiae?co iane?aee?a aeiiii?/ii? iie?oeee
a ??cieo noa?ao, aeyaeaiiy iayaieo aeeni?iii?oe?e ? ia??oiooaaiiy
oeyo?a aeoiaeo ?c neooaoe??, ui neeaeany.
3. Cae?eniaiee a aeena?oaoe?? aiae?c iaoeiaeo i?aoeue, ui
aeine?aeaeothoue iaoiaee ? iiaeae? i?iaiicoaaiiy aaeiaiai
aioo??oiueiai i?iaeoeoo, na?ae/eoue i?i iaaeinoaoi? aena?oeaiiy i?iaeai
i?iaiicoaaiiy iae?iiieaciee?a aeey aeiiii?ee, ui ia?aaoaa? a noai?
nenoaiii? o?ainoi?iaoe??, ?icaaeainiaaieo aeiiii?/ieo i?ioean?a, aea ua
iaia? aaaaoueio iciae ?icaeiooiai ?eieiaiai ainiiaea?noaa. A?eueo?noue
c ieo i?ecia/aia aeey canoinoaaiiy ca oiia noaa?eueiiai ?icaeoeo ? ia
aaeaioiaaia aei iniaeeainoae e?eciai? aeiiii?ee. A ?iaio? ia??oioiaaii
i?eioeeie ?ic?iaee iaoiaee/ieo iniia i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI, ui aeicaieythoue
aaeaeaaoii a?aeia?aceoe niaoeeo?eo Oe?a?ie.
4. C iaoith a?aooaaiiy ?aae?e nueiaiaeaiiy ? iane?aee?a aeiiii?/ii?
iie?oeee a na?aaeiueino?ieia?e ia?niaeoea? a aeena?oaoe?? ?ic?iaeaia
iiaeaeue i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI (a ?ic??c? eaa?oae?a), yea aaco?oueny ia
i?eioeeiao ocaiaeaeaiino? iiieoo ? i?iiiceoe??, aea? iiaeeea?noue
a?aeia?aceoe aieea oi?aae?inueeeo ??oaiue ia aeiiii?eo /a?ac ?yae
aeciaaiieo iieaciee?a, ui a?aeia?aaeathoue ia?aaeoiiae aeiiii?/iiai
?icaeoeo ia ia?niaeoeao. Aei ieo iaeaaeaoue: ??aaiue aea?aeaaieo aeo?ao
(o a?aenioeao aei AAI), ??aaiue iiiaeaoeoaaiiy aeiiii?ee (o a?aenioeao
aei AAI), ??aaiue iiiaoecaoe??, oaiie c?inoaiiy ?aaeueieo a?ioiaeo
aeioiae?a ianaeaiiy, ?aaeueiee iai?iiee eo?n a?eai?.
5. Ia?aaaaith iiaeae?, ui i?iiiio?oueny, ? ia eeoa i?iaiicoaaiiy
?aaeueiiai AAI, aea ? eiai no?oeoo?ieo neeaaeiaeo ia aoaiao ae?iaieoeoaa
? aeei?enoaiiy, ui ? a?aeia?aaeaiiyi iane?aee?a ?aaoethth/iai aieeao
aea?aeaae /a?ac ?? aeiiii?/io iie?oeeo o i?iaiiciiio ia??iae?.
6. Aeey aeaoae?caoe?? i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooie?a AAI ia ei?ioeino?ieiaee
ia??iae a aeena?oaoe?? ?ic?iaeaii iaoiaee/iee i?aeo?ae, ui ??oioo?oueny
ia a?ao?/iiio aecia/aii? aeeiai?ee AAI ii i?nyoeyo a caeaaeiino? a?ae
aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo iniiaieo aaeocae ae?iaieoeoaa oiaa??a. I?e oeueiio
ia??oioiao?oueny ia?aaaaa aeei?enoaiiy aeoioeyoeaieo oaii?a ci?ie
iieaciee?a iaae oaiiaie aei iiia?aaeiueiai i?nyoey, /ei caaacia/o?oueny
iiaeeea?noue a?ao?/iiai cia?aaeaiiy o?aiaoe??, ieiua yei? aoaea
a?aeiia?aeaoe noaio aeiiii?/iiai ?icaeoeo.
7. A aeena?oaoe?ei?e ?iaio? cai?iiiiiaaii iaoiae ioe?iee ?ioeyoe?eiiai
aieeao ia i?e??no aaeiaiai aioo??oiueiai i?iaeoeoo Oe?a?ie, ?ic?iaeaiee
ia iniia? ocaaaeueiaiiy a?aeiia?aeii? ?ioi?iaoe?? ii ?yaeo e?a?i, ui
i?ieoee ia??iae aeiiii?/iiai niaaeo ? o?ainoi?iaoe??.
8. Ia iniia? ?ic?iaeaiiai a aeena?oaoe?ei?e ?iaio? iiaeaeueiiai aia?aoo
cae?eniaii i?iaiic AAI ia 1999 ?. ? ia ia??iae aei 2003 ?. ca aaeocaaith
no?oeoo?ith i?iiiceoe?? ? iai?yieaie e?ioeaaiai aeei?enoaiiy. Aiae?c
?acoeueoao?a i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooie?a ia aac? ?ic?iaeaii? a aeena?oaoe??
iiaeae? iieacaa, ui io?eiai? i?iaiici? cia/aiiy ?aaeueiiai AAI ia
i?ioyc? 1998 ?ieo iathoue iacia/io noaoenoe/io iioeaeo, ui na?ae/eoue
i?i aeinoaoith iaae?ei?noue cai?iiiiiaaiiai iaoiaee/iiai
?ino?oiaioa??th.
9. ?ic?iaeaiee a aeena?oaoe?? ?ino?oiaioa??e i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI
ni?eyoeia oaeineiiaeaiith i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooie?a, i?aeaeuaiith
ia??oioiaaiino? oi?aae?inueeeo ??oaiue a noa?? aeiiii?/ii? iie?oeee, ui
i?eeiathoueny ia iniia? i?iaiico.
10. ?ic?iaeai? a aeena?oaoe?ei?e ?iaio? iaoiaee ? iiaeae? ciaeoee
i?aeoe/ia canoinoaaiiy a i?ioean? i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooie?a oi?ioaaiiy AAI
a Aieiaiiio oi?aae?ii? iae?iaeiiii?/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy I?i?noa?noaa
aeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie, oa ?yaeo iaoeiai-aeine?aeieo ?ia?o, aeeiiaieo a IAeA?
I?iaeiiii?ee, a yeeo aaciina?aaeiuei a?aa o/anoue aaoi?.
NIENIE IIOAE?EIAAIEO I?AOeUe
1. Ei?aaeueia I.I. O?e i?aeoiaee aei iieaa?oaeueiiai i?iaiicoaaiiy
aaeiai? aeiaeaii? aa?oino? // Ca??iee noaoae iieiaeeo a/aieo IAeA?
I?iaeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie “Oi?ioaaiiy ?eieiaeo a?aeiinei a Oe?a?i?”, aeione 2
– E., 1996. – N. 100-106.
2. Ei?aaeueia I.I. Iaoiaee i?iaiicoaaiiy aaeiaiai aioo??oiueiai
i?iaeoeoo oa aeiiii?/iiai ?inoo e?a?ie // Ca??iee noaoae iieiaeeo a/aieo
IAeA? I?iaeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie “Oi?ioaaiiy ?eieiaeo a?aeiinei a Oe?a?i?”,
aeione 3 – E., 1997. – N. 30-39.
3. Ei?aaeueia I.I. I?iaiicia iiaeaethaaiiy aaeiaiai aioo??oiueiai
i?iaeoeoo // Ca??iee noaoae iieiaeeo a/aieo IAeA? I?iaeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie
“Oi?ioaaiiy ?eieiaeo a?aeiinei a Oe?a?i?”, aeione 5 – E., 1998.-N. 3-16.
4. Ei?aaeueia I.I. Iiaeeea? noeaia??? aeiiii?/iiai ?icaeoeo Oe?a?ie //
?a??iiaeuei? ia?niaeoeae – E?aiai/oe, aa?anaiue ? 2(3) 1998?.-N. 6-7.
AIIOAOe?ss
Ei?aaeueia I.I. Iaoiaee/i? iniiae i?iaiicoaaiiy aaeiaiai aioo??oiueiai
i?iaeoeoo. – ?oeiien.
Aeena?oaoe?y ia caeiaoooy a/aiiai nooiaiy eaiaeeaeaoa aeiiii?/ieo iaoe
ii niaoe?aeueiino? 08.02.03 – i?aai?caoe?y oi?aae?iiy, ieaioaaiiy ?
?aaoethaaiiy aeiiii?eith. – Iaoeiai – aeine?aeiee aeiiii?/iee ?inoeooo
I?i?noa?noaa aeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie, Ee?a, 1998.
?iaioa i?enay/aia ieoaiiyi i?iaiicieo ?ic?aooie?a AAI c a?aooaaiiyi
iaoiaeieia?? NI?. Ioe?iaii i?noea ? ?ieue i?iaiicieo iieaciee?a AAI a
ia??oiooaaii? oi?aae?inueeeo ??oaiue, ocaaaeueiai? iniiai? iaoiaee/i?
i?aeoiaee aei i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI a oiiaao ia?ao?aeiiai ia??iaeo.
?ic?iaeaia iiaeaeue i?iaiicoaaiiy AAI, ui aaco?oueny ia eaa?oaeuei?e
?ioi?iaoe?? uiaei ae?iaieoeoaa AAeA a iniiaieo aaeocyo ae?iaieoeoaa
oiaa??a ? iineoa, e?ioeaaiio niiaeeaaiith aeiiaoi?o ainiiaea?noa ?
naeoi?? caaaeueiiai aea?aeaaiiai oi?aae?iiy, /enoiio aenii?o?, /enoeo
iai?yieo iiaeaoeao ? ?iaanoeoe?yo. A iiaeae? ia?aaeaa/a?oueny
caaeainoaaiiy iiieoo ? i?iiiceoe?? i?ae aieeaii ae?? ?yaeo aeciaaiieo
ci?iieo. ?ic?iaeaii i?iaiic AAI ia ei?ioeino?ieiaee ia??iae ?
na?aaeiueino?ieiao ia?niaeoeao.
Eeth/ia? neiaa: aaeiaee aioo??oi?e i?iaeoeo, Nenoaia iaoe?iiaeueieo
?aooie?a, iiieo, i?iiiceoe?y, aeiiiiao?eea, i?iaiicoaaiiy.
AIIIOAOeEss
Ei?aaeaa I.I. Iaoiaee/aneea iniiau i?iaiice?iaaiey aaeiaiai aioo?aiiaai
i?iaeoeoa.- ?oeiienue.
Aeenna?oaoeey ia nieneaiea o/aiie noaiaie eaiaeeaeaoa yeiiiie/aneeo iaoe
ii niaoeeaeueiinoe 08.02.03 – I?aaiecaoeey oi?aaeaiey, ieaie?iaaiey e
ainoaea?noaaiiiai ?aaoee?iaaiey yeiiiieee. – Iao/ii-enneaaeiaaoaeueneee
yeiiiie/aneee einoeooo Ieienoa?noaa yeiiiieee Oe?aeiu. – Eeaa, 1998.
Aeenna?oaoeey iinayuaia aii?inai ?ac?aaioee iaoiaee/aneeo iniia
i?iaiice?iaaiey AAI n o/aoii o?aaiaaiee iaoiaeieiaee Nenoaiu
iaoeeiiaeueiuo n/aoia. A ?aaioa inouanoaeaia ioeaiea ianoa e ?iee
i?iaiiciuo iieacaoaeae AAI a iainiiaaiee oi?aaeai/aneeo ?aoaiee,
cia/eiinoue eioi?uo naycaia n iaiaoiaeeiinoueth iainiiaaiey aeioiaeia e
?anoiaeia athaeaeaoa, iiiaoa?iuo iieacaoaeae, aeinoeaeaiey e
iiaeaea?aeee niioaaonoaothueo i?iii?oeee ?acaeoey yeiiiieee, iieneo
enoi/ieeia yeiiiie/aneiai ?inoa e ?aoaiey nioeeaeueiuo i?iaeai iauanoaa.
Iaiauaiu nouanoaothuea iaoiaee/aneea iiaeoiaeu e i?iaiice?iaaieth AAI, e
iainiiaaiu auaiaeu ioiineoaeueii eo ianiioaaonoaey ?aaeeyi ia?aoiaeiiai
ia?eiaea oe?aeineie yeiiiieee, eioi?ay oa?aeoa?ece?oaony
ianoaaeeueiinoueth e i?ioeai?a/eainoueth oaiaeaioeee ?acaeoey, neaaie
/oanoaeoaeueiinoueth e iauai?eiyoui a ?acaeouo ?uii/iuo yeiiiieeao
ainoaea?noaaiiui yeiiiie/aneei ?aaoeyoi?ai.
N oeaeueth niaa?oainoaiaaiey iaoiaee/aneeo iniia i?iaiice?iaaiey AAI a
?aaioa i?aaeeaaathony eiioeaiooaeueiua i?eioeeiu aeaeueiaeoaai ?acaeoey
iaoiaeeee i?iaiiciuo ?an/aoia n o/aoii iniaaiiinoae yeiiiieee
ia?aoiaeiiai ia?eiaea.
A ea/anoaa eino?oiaioa i?iaiice?iaaiey a aeenna?oaoeee i?aaeeaaaaony
i?eaeiaeueiay yeiiiiao?e/aneay iiaeaeue, eioi?ay aace?oaony ia
iieaa?oaeueiie noaoenoe/aneie eioi?iaoeee eanathuaeny AAI, aai
ninoaaeythueo ii io?aneyi i?iecaiaenoaa oiaa?ia e oneoa e eaoaai?eyi
eniieueciaaiey, e i?aaeoniao?eaaao niaeaniaaiea ni?ina e i?aaeeiaeaiey a
yeiiiieea.
Oeaee yeiiiie/aneie iieeoeee o/eouaathony /a?ac yeciaaiiua ia?aiaiiua, e
eioi?ui ioiinyony: o?iaaiue ainoaea?noaaiiuo ?anoiaeia, o?iaaiue
iaeiaiiaeiaeaiey, oaiiu ?inoa ?aaeueiuo aeaiaaeiuo aeioiaeia ianaeaiey,
?aaeueiue iaiaiiue eo?n, o?iaaiue iiiaoecaoeee yeiiiieee.
Nouanoaaiiui ioee/eai yeciaaiiuo ia?aiaiiuo yaeyaony caeiiiaeaoaeueiue
eee oeaeaaie oa?aeoa? eo ii?aaeaeaiey, /oi niioaaonoaoao oneiaeyi
ianoaaeeueiiai ?acaeoey yeiiiieee Oe?aeiu ia ia?aoiaeiii yoaia.
Ia iniiaa eniieueciaaiey iaoiaeia iiiaioaeoi?iiai i?iaiice?iaaiey a
?aaioa ii?aaeaeaii aeeyiea ia ?acoeueoaou i?iecaiaenoaaiiie
aeayoaeueiinoe iniiaiuo io?aneae yeiiiieee iaeaieaa nouanoaaiiuo
oaeoi?ia, aeeth/ay o?iaaiue ?acaeoey ioaeaeueiuo io?aneae, /anoiia e
ainoaea?noaaiiia iio?aaeaiea, eiaanoeoeee, yenii?o, eiii?o, iaeiae,
aeioiaeu ianaeaiey.
Iainiiaaiu yeiiiieei-iieeoe/aneea oneiaey oi?ie?iaaiey AAI a i?iaiiciii
ia?eiaea e ii?aaeaeaii eo aeeyiea ia o?iaaiue iniiaiuo eiaeeeaoi?ia
yeiiiie/aneiai ?acaeoey.
?acoeueoaoaie ?aoaiey iiaeaee yaeythony i?iaiiciua iieacaoaee ?aaeueiiai
AAI a noieiinoiuo no?oeoo?ao i?iecaiaenoaa e iio?aaeaiey.
Eniieueciaaiea ?ac?aaioaiiiai iiaeaeueiiai aiia?aoa iaania/eaaao
aeinoaoi/ioth aeinoiaa?iinoue ?acoeueoaoia ?an/aoia aeaaiaea?y
naaeaine?iaaiiinoe iieacaoaeae ni?ina e i?aaeeiaeaiey, aeaao
aiciiaeiinoue ioeaieoue iineaaenoaey ainoaea?noaaiiiai aeeyiey ia
?acoeueoaou yeiiiie/aneie aeayoaeueiinoe e iiauneoue ia yoie iniiaa
iainiiaaiiinoue oi?aaeai/aneeo ?aoaiee. I aeinoiaa?iinoe i?iaiiciuo
?an/aoia naeaeaoaeuenoaotho iacia/eoaeueiua ?anoiaeaeaiey iaaeaeo
?an/aoiuie e oaeoe/aneeie cia/aieyie ?aaeueiiai AAI a 1997 e 1998 aa.
Iaoiaee/aneee eino?oiaioa?ee aeey i?iaiice?iaaiey AAI aeiiieiai ca n/ao:
?ac?aaioee iaoiaea iiiany/iiai i?iaiice?iaaiey AAI enoiaey ec aeeiaieee
e no?oeoo?u iniiaiuo io?aneae yeiiiieee i?iecaiaeyueo oiaa?u, e
iicaieythuae o/anoue ?acii iai?aaeaiiinoue ?acaeoey e naciiiue oa?aeoa?
i?iecaiaenoaa; ?ac?aaioee iaoiaea ii?aaeaeaiey aeeyiey eioeyoeeiiiuo
i?ioeannia ia oi?ie?iaaiea ?aaeueiiai AAI, aace?othuaainy ia ia?aaioea
noaoenoe/aneie eioi?iaoeee ii 22-oi no?aiai i?ioaaeoei ia?eiae
yeiiiie/aneiai niaaea e aeia?eioeyoeee.
I?eioeeieaeueiua iieiaeaiey ?aaiou eniieueciaaiu a iao/iuo ?ac?aaioeao
IEYE Ieiyeiiiieee Oe?aeiu e ai?iae?iaaii a i?ioeanna i?iaiiciuo ?an/aoia
a Aeaaiii oi?aaeaiee iae?iyeiiiie/aneiai i?iaiice?iaaiey Ieienoa?noaa
yeiiiieee Oe?aeiu.
Eeth/aaua neiaa: aaeiaie aioo?aiiee i?iaeoeo, Nenoaia iaoeeiiaeueiuo
n/aoia, ni?in, i?aaeeiaeaiea, yeiiiiao?eea, i?iaiice?iaaiea.
ABSTRACT
Nikolay N. Korablyov Methodical bases of forecasting of a gross
domestic product. – the Manuscript.
Desertation on reception of a scientific degree of the candidate of
economic sciences on a speciality 08.02.03 – organization management,
planning and regulation by economy. Scientific – research economic
institute of Ministry of economy of Ukraine, Kiev, 1998.
The work is devoted to questions of forecast accounts a GDP in view of a
methodology CNA. A place and role of forecast parameters a GDP in a
substantiation of the administrative decisions is appreciated, basic
methodical approaches to forecasting a GDP in conditions of transitive
period are generalized. Model of forecasting the GDP, based on the
quarter information on manufacture GVA in the basic branches of
manufacture of the goods and services, final consumption in home
facilities and sector of general state management, net export, net
indirect taxes and investments is developed. In model it is provided
reconcile of a supply and demand under influence of action of a number
exogenous variable. By result of the decision of model forecast
parameters of manufacture the GDP in its branch and GDP in categories of
use act. The forecast the GDP on short-term period and intermediate term
prospect is developed.
Key words: gross domestic product, system of the national accounts,
demand, supply, econometrics, forecasting.
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