.

Моделювання ризику в кредитній політиці комерційного банку: Автореф. дис… канд. екон. наук / О.В. Пернарівський, Київ. нац. екон. ун-т. — К., 1999.

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I?I?NOA?NOAI INA?OE OE?A?IE

EE?ANUeEEE IAOe?IIAEUeIEE AEIIII?*IEE OI?AA?NEOAO

Ia?ia??anueeee Ieaenaiae? Aaneeueiae/

OAeE 336.77:330.115

IIAeAETHAAIIss ?ECEEO

A E?AAeEOI?E IIE?OEOe?

EIIA?Oe?EIIAI AAIEO

08.03.02-aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ia iiaeaethaaiiy

Aaoi?aoa?ao

aeena?oaoe?? ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy

eaiaeeaeaoa aeiiii?/ieo iaoe

Ee?a-1999

Aeena?oaoe?y ? ?oeiien.

?iaioa aeeiiaia ia eaoaae?? aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ieo iaoiae?a Ee?anueeiai
iaoe?iiaeueiiai aeiiii?/iiai oi?aa?neoaoo I?i?noa?noaa ina?oe Oe?a?ie.

Iaoeiaee ea??aiee: aeieoi? aeiiii?/ieo iaoe, i?ioani?

A?oe?inueeee Aaeueaeaia?
Aieiaeeie?iae/,

Ee?anueeee iaoe?iiaeueiee
aeiiii?/iee

oi?aa?neoao, i?ioani?

eaoaae?e aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ieo
iaoiae?a.

Io?oe?ei? iiiiaioe: aeieoi? aeiiii?/ieo iaoe, i?ioani?

eao?aao i?ai?? ?i. I.A.
Oe?ooa?a(Oe?a?ia)

Eino?ia I?ia ?aai?aia,

Ee?anueeee iaoe?iiaeueiee
oi?aa?neoao ?i. O.

Oaa/aiea, i?ioani?

eaoaae?e o?iain?a, a?ioiaiai
ia?ao oa

e?aaeeoo

eaiaeeaeao aeiiii?/ieo iaoe,
aeioeaio

Eoe’yiaiei ??eia A?eai??aia,

Iaoe?iiaeueiee oi?aa?neoao

“Ee?ai-Iiaeeyinueea aeaaeai?y”,

aeioeaio eaoaae?e aeiiii?/ii?
oai???.

I?ia?aeia onoaiiaa- Euea?anueeee aea?aeaaiee oi?aa?neoao

?i. ?. O?aiea,

eaoaae?a aeiiii?/ii?
e?aa?iaoeee.

Caoeno a?aeaoaeaoueny “ 28 ” o?aaiy 1999?. i 16-00 aiaeei? ia
can?aeaii? niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee Ae26.006.01 Ee?anueeiai
iaoe?iiaeueiiai aeiiii?/iiai oi?aa?neoaoo ca aae?anith: 252057, i. Ee?a,
i?ini. Ia?aiiae, 54/1, aoae. 214.

C aeena?oaoe??th iiaeia iciaeiieoeny a a?ae?ioaoe? Ee?anueeiai
iaoe?iiaeueiiai aeiiii?/iiai oi?aa?neoaoo ca aae?anith: 252057, i. Ee?a,
i?ini. Ia?aiiae, 54/1.

Aaoi?aoa?ao ?ic?neaii “ 26 ” ea?oiy 1999?.

A/aiee nae?aoa? niaoe?ae?ciaaii?

a/aii? ?aaee, i?ioani? I.
Ae. Oa?aiia.

CAAAEUeIA OA?AEOA?ENOEEA ?IAIOE

Aeooaeuei?noue oaie. Aaie?anueea ae?yeuei?noue ? iaeiei c
iae?eceeiaai?oeo aeae?a i?aei?e?iieoeoaa, yea ao?oeeai ?icaeaa?oueny c
/ano caeiaoooy Oe?a?iith nai?? iacaeaaeiino? oa i?iaieioaiiy eo?no ia
iiaoaeiao nioe?aeueii-i???ioiaaii? ?eieiai? aeiiii?ee. A oiiaao
iei?oiueiai ia?ao?aeiiai ia??iaeo aeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie, yeee
oa?aeoa?eco?oueny aino?ith e?ecith iaieaoaae?a, ianoa/ath aai acaaae?
a?aenooi?noth aeanieo iai?ioieo eioo?a o ia?aaaaeii? a?eueoino?
noa’?eo?a ainiiaea?thaaiiy, eiia?oe?ei? aaiee ciooai? iino?eii
aaeineiiaethaaoe no?aoaa?th oa oaeoeeo nai?? e?aaeeoii? ae?yeueiino?.

E?aaeeooaaiiy, a naith /a?ao, ? /e ia iaea?eueo ?eceeiaaiith iia?aoe??th
eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo, ui iaoiiaeaia naiith i?e?iaeith e?aaeeoii? oaiaee e
oei, ui aiii iin?aea? /?eueia i?noea a aeoeaao iaeaea an?o eiia?oe?eieo
aaie?a. Iaaeoi ?eceeiaaia e?aaeeoia iie?oeea ? iaei??th c iniiaieo
i?e/ei, ui i?ecaiaeeoue aei aaie?oonoaa eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo.

C o?aooaaiiyi iiaeo oai?aoe/ieo i?aeoiae?a ? iaaaeueieo iio?aa
aaie?anueei? i?aeoeee, aaaeeeaith ? ?icaoaeiaa oa canoinoaaiiy
aeineiiaeeo oa aaeaeaaoieo ?aaeuei?e neooaoe?? aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ieo
iaoiae?a oa iiaeaeae o i?ioean? i?aeo?eiee i?eeiyooy e?aaeeoieo ??oaiue,
ye? noinothoueny ieoaiue iiaeeeaino? (aeioe?eueiino?) oeeaaeaiiy
e?aaeeoii? oaiaee, anoaiiaeaiiy noaaee a?aenioea ca e?aaeeoiith
oaiaeith, oi?ioaaiiy no?aoiaiai caiano aeey iie?eooy iiaeeeaeo caeoe?a
ca e?aaeeoiith oaiaeith. Ia’?eoeaii-?nioth/? noia?a/iino? a i?eeiyoo?
oeeo ??oaiue aeiaaathoue iino?eiiai aaeineiiaeaiiy ye ci?noo, oae ?
iaoiaeieia?? no?aoaa?? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo,
?ic?iaeaiiy iaoaiaoe/ieo iaoiae?a oa iiaeaeae c aeei?enoaiiyi, ye
noaoenoe/ieo (e?euee?nieo) aeaieo, oae ? noa’?eoeaii? (aenia?oii?,
aa?aaeueii?) ?ioi?iaoe??.

Ca’ycie ?iaioe c iaoeiaeie i?ia?aiaie, ieaiaie, oaiaie. Aeena?oaoe?eia
?iaioa aeeiiaia o a?aeiia?aeiino? c ieaiii iaoeiai-aeine?aeii? ?iaioe ia
eaoaae?? aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ieo iaoiae?a Ee?anueeiai iaoe?iiaeueiiai
aeiiii?/iiai oi?aa?neoaoo ye neeaaeiaa /anoeia oaie “Iaoiaeieia?/i? oa
iaoiaee/i? i?iaeaie ? ?icaeoie ?ino?oiaioa??th iaoaiaoe/iiai
iiaeaethaaiiy aeiiii?/ieo ia’?eo?a ? i?ioean?a” (?a?no?aoe?eiee iiia?
0197V019267).

Iaoa ? caaea/? aeine?aeaeaiiy. Iaoith aeena?oaoe?? ? ?icaeoie
iaoiaeieia?/ieo i?aeoiae?a oa iiaoaeiaa aaeaeaaoieo iiaeaeae ? iaoiae?a
uiaei ?ic?iaeaiiy no?aoaa?? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo.

Aeey ?aae?caoe?? iaoe a aeine?aeaeaii? iinoaaeai? oa ?ica’ycothoueny
oae? caaea/?.

* Aiae?c ?nioth/eo iaoiaeieia?/ieo i?aeoiae?a ? i?iaeai uiaei
oi?ioaaiiy oa iiaeaethaaiiy no?aoaa?? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo eiia?oe?eiiai
aaieo.

* Aecia/aiiy nooiino? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo oa eiai iniiaieo
oa?aeoa?enoee.

* ?aeaioeo?eaoe?y iaea?eueo nooo?aeo /eiiee?a(aeaea?ae)
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo.

* Iiaoaeiaa eia?ei-eiia??i?nieo iiaeaeae ioe?iee e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo:
uiaei iice/aeueieea, uiaei niiniao caaacia/aiiy iiaa?iaiiy iiceee;
uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee.

* Eiiieaenia aeine?aeaeaiiy iecee iae/ano?oa aeei?enoiaoaaieo iieaciee?a
e?euee?nii? ioe?iee nooiaiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo ? ?ic?iaeaiiy iecee iiaeo
iieaciee?a, ye? a aaeaeaaoii a?aeia?aaeaee oaeiae ?ioa?ane noa’?eo?a
i?eeiyooy ??oaiue.

* ?ic?iaea eiiieaenii? iaoiaeeee ioe?iee e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei
e?aaeeoii? oaiaee.

* Oaeineiiaeaiiy i?aeoiae?a, ye? a?aoiaothoue nooi?iue e?aaeeoiiai
?eceeo i?e i?eeiyoo? ??oaiue (aeioe?euei?noue oeeaaeaiiy e?aaeeoii?
oaiaee, anoaiiaeaiiy noaaee a?aenioea ca e?aaeeo).

Oai?aoe/iith oa iaoiaeieia?/iith iniiaith aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe ?
aeinyaiaiiy a?o/eciyieo oa ca?oa?aeieo a/aieo a aaeoc? aaie?anueei?
ni?aae, oai??? e?aaeeoo, aaie?anueeiai iaiaaeaeiaioo, oai???
aeiiii?/iiai ?eceeo, aeiiiiao???, iaaaaeai? a i?aoeyo Aeueoiaia ?.,
Ainiooa ?., Ai?a I.C., A?oe?inueeiai A.A., Ai?ii?ia Ae., Aieiaa/a A.A.,
A?yaeiai? I., ?eaeea A.A, Ca?oae I.Ae., Eaioi?iae/a E.A., Eino?ii? I.A.,
Ianeai/aieiaa TH.N., Ii?ica A.I., Iaeiia/iiai N.?., Iaiiai? A.A.,
Ia?aicaainueeiai A.A., ?ai N.?., Naa?oe A.O., Ceoieea A.O., N?ie? Aeae.
O., Nieiaeaioeaaa ?.Ae., Oa?aiiaa I.Ae., ssno?ainueeiai I.?. oiui. A
i?ioean? aeine?aeaeaiiy aoa canoiniaaiee eiiieaen iaoiae?a, aei yeiai
aoiaeyoue iaoiae aiae?co e neioaco, eia?ei-eiia??i?niee iaoiae
(EE-iaoiae), iaoiae noaoenoe/ieo aei?iaoaaiue (iaoiae Iiioa-Ea?ei),
iaoiae aeene?ei?iaioiiai aiae?co, iaoiae aieiaieo eiiiiiaio, iaoiaee
aiae?co ???a?o?e oiui.

?ioi?iaoe?eiith iniiaith aeine?aeaeaiiy neoaoaaee iaoa??aee aea?aeaaieo
noaoenoe/ieo i?aai?a Oe?a?ie, noaoenoe/i? aeai? Iaoe?iiaeueiiai aaieo
Oe?a?ie, ?ao?iniaeoeai? aeai? uiaei iice/aeueiee?a iecee eiia?oe?eieo
aaie?a Oe?a?ie.

Iaoeiaa iiaecia iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a. ?acoeueoaoii i?iaaaeaiiai
iaoeiaiai aeine?aeaeaiiy iniiaieo i?aeoiae?a aei aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/iiai
iiaeaethaaiiy no?aoaa?? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo ? iecea
?ica’ycaieo oai?aoe/ieo oa i?eeeaaeieo caaea/. Iaea?aeaii oae? iia?
?acoeueoaoe:

1. Cai?iiiiiaaii eiioeaiooaeueio noaio oi?aae?iiy
e?aaeeoiei ?eceeii eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo: ye?niee aiae?c – e?euee?nia
ioe?iea – a?aooaaiiy a i?eeiyoo? ??oaiue.

2. Aeie?aieaii oae? neeaaeia? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo: uiaei iice/aeueieea,
uiaei niiniao caaacia/aiiy iiceee, uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee. Iiaoaeiaaii
?o eia?ei-eiia??i?ni? iiaeae?, ye? ? iaiao?aeiith ia?aaeoiiaith
aaeaeaaoii? ioe?iee nooiaiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo.

3. Cai?iiiiiaaii ieceo e?euee?nieo iieaciee?a nooiaiy ii?ooaeueiiai
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo, ye? aeathoue ciiao ii??aithaaoe ?ecee ie?aieo
e?aaeeoieo ii?ooae?a e?eueeio eiia?oe?eieo aaie?a aai ?o o?e?e
(a?aeae?eaiue).

4. ?ic?iaeaii, ia aac? canoinoaaiiy iaoiaeo aeene?ei?iaioiiai
aiae?co(IAeA), eeaneo?eaoe?ei? iiaeae? ioe?ithaaiiy o?iainiaiai /eiieea
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei iice/aeueieea c o?aooaaiiyi eiai aaeocaai?
iaeaaeiino?.

5. Cai?iiiiiaaii iaoiaeeeo ?ioaeaeooae?ciaaii? e?euee?nii? ioe?iee
e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea ia aac? canoinoaaiiy ?icieea/anoiai
iaoiaeo aiae?co ???a?o?e(?IA?).

6.?ic?iaeaii eiiieaenio iaoiaeeeo ioe?iee e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei
e?aaeeoii? oaiaee, yea ia?aaeaa/a? canoinoaaiiy IAeA, iaoiaeo
noaoenoe/ieo aei?iaoaaiue (iaoiaeo Iiioa-Ea?ei), ?IA? oa ?ioeo iaoiae?a
ia?iaee ?ioi?iaoe??.

7. Cai?iiiiiaaii aeai?eoi i?eeiyooy ??oaiiy i?i iiaeeea?noue oeeaaeaiiy
e?aaeeoii? oaiaee c o?aooaaiiyi e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei oe??? oaiaee
oa ii?ooaeueiiai e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo.

8. ?ic?iaeaii iaoiaeeeo aecia/aiiy noaaee a?aenioea ca e?aaeeo, yea
ia?aaeaa/a? o?aooaaiiy ?eceeo ao?aoe (iiaii? aai /anoeiai?) iice/aieo
aaieii eioo?a, ?eceeo ianai?/aniiai iiaa?iaiiy iice/aeueieeii acyoi?
iiceee oa aieeao aeaii? e?aaeeoii? oaiaee ia nooi?iue ?eceeiaaiino?
e?aaeeoiiai ii?ooaey eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo.

I?aeoe/ia cia/aiiy iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a:

* cai?iiiiiaaiee i?aeo?ae aei ?ica’ycaiiy i?iaeai i?aeaeuaiiy
aoaeoeaiino? no?aoaa?? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo aea? ciiao
a?aoiaoaaoe iniaeeaino? i?ioeano e?aaeeooaaiiy ia iei?oiueiio aoai?
ia?ao?aeii? aeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie;

* ?ic?iaeaiee aeai?eoi i?eeiyooy ??oaiiy i?i iiaeeea?noue
(aeioe?euei?noue) oeeaaeaiiy e?aaeeoii? oaiaee c o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo
aea? ciiao i?eeiaoe iaoeiai-iaa?oioiaaia ??oaiiy, ui ni?eyoeia
ciaioaiith oyaa?y i?ino?i/aii? caai?aiaaiino? ca e?aaeeoaie ia aaeain
eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo.

* cai?iiiiiaaia iaoiaeeea aecia/aiiy noaaee a?aenioea ca e?aaeeo aea?
ciiao aeeoa?aioe?thaaoe a?aenioeia? noaaee ca e?aaeeo a caeaaeiino? a?ae
nooiaiy ?eceeiaaiino? eiie?aoii? e?aaeeoii? oaiaee.

Cai?iiiiiaaia a aeena?oaoe?? iaoiaeeea iiaeaethaaiiy no?aoaa??
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo a iaiaaeaeiaio? eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo, a oaeiae ??
iaoaiaoe/ia caaacia/aiiy, ai?iaiaai? oa ai?iaaaeaeai? a i?aeoeeo
ae?yeueiino? AEA “Oi?oi”(Aeia?aeea, aeo. ? 1603 a?ae 16 aa?aciy 1999?.).

Ai?iaaoe?y ?acoeueoao?a aeine?aeaeaiiy. Iniiai? iieiaeaiiy aeena?oaoe??
aeiiia?aeaeenue ia iaoeiai-i?aeoe/ieo eiioa?aioe?yo: “Aeiiiiao?e/i?
iaoiaee ? iiaeae? a aeiiii?oe?: oai??y ? i?aeoeea” (i. Euea?a, ethoee
1998 ?.), “I?iaeaie aeiiii?/ii? oai??? oa i?aeo eee a no/anieo oiiaao”
(i. Oiaeueieoeueeee, ea?oaiue 1998 ?.); “I?iaeaie aeiiii?/iiai ?eceeo:
aiae?c oa oi?aae?iiy” (i. Ee?a, aeiaoaiue 1998 ?.).

?acoeueoaoe iaoeiaiai aeine?aeaeaiiy aeei?enoiaothoueny a o/aiaiio
i?ioean? i?e aea/aii? eo?n?a a?aeiia?aeieo aeenoeeie?i o Ee?anueeiio
iaoe?iiaeueiiio aeiiii?/iiio oi?aa?neoao?.

Ioae?eaoe??. Ii oai? aeena?oaoe?? iioae?eiaaii 11 ?ia?o caaaeueiei
ianyaii 4,71 ae?. a?e. (c ieo 2,82 ae?oe. a?e. iaeaaeeoue iniaenoi
aaoi?o).

Ianya ? no?oeoo?a ?iaioe. Aeena?oaoe?y neeaaea?oueny c anooio,o?ueio
?icae?e?a (10-oe ia?aa?ao?a), aeniiae?a oa i?iiiceoe?e, a?ae?ia?ao?/iiai
nieneo, ui i?noeoue 81 iaeiaioaaiiy, ia?aoiao? 170 noi??iie ae?oeiaaiiai
oaenoo oa 5 aeiaeaoe?a ia 16 noi??ieao. ?iaioa i?noeoue 12 oaaeeoeue, 21
?enoiie.

CI?NO ?IAIOE

O anooi? iaa?oioiaaii aeooaeuei?noue oaie aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe,
noi?ioeueiaaii iaoo oa caaaeaiiy aeine?aeaeaiiy, iieacaii iaoeiao
iiaecio oa i?aeoe/ia cia/aiiy io?eiaieo ?acoeueoao?a.

O ia?oiio ?icae?e? “Aeiiii?/i? aniaeoe oa iaoiaeieia?/i? i?iaeaie
no?aoaa?? ?eceeo a iaiaaeaeiaio? eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo” iaa?oioiaai? ?ieue
? cia/aiiy ?eceeieia?? a ae?yeueiino? eiia?oe?eieo aaie?a Oe?a?ie.

Iaei??th c iae?eceeiaai?oeo iia?aoe?e eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo ?
e?aaeeooaaiiy. Oea iiynith?oueny ye naiith i?e?iaeith e?aaeeoo oae ?
oei, ui oey iia?aoe?y iin?aea? /?eueia i?noea a aaeainao ia?aaaaeii?
e?eueeino? eiia?oe?eieo aaie?a. Ana oea aeiaaa? a?ae iaiaeaea??a aaieo
?ic?iaee aeaaaeaii?, c iiaeyaeo ?eceeo, e?aaeeoii? iie?oeee.

E?aaeeoia iie?oeea noai?th? iaiao?aei? caaaeuei? ia?aaeoiiae aeey
aoaeoeaii? i?aoe? ia?niiaeo aaieo , cieaeo? eiia??i?noue iiieeie i?e
i?eeiyoo? ??oaiue. Aiia ia?aaeaa/a? noai?aiiy e ooieoe?iioaaiiy
a?aeiia?aeii? i?aai?caoe?eii? no?oeoo?e – e?aaeeoiiai aeaia?oaiaioo
eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo. A iueiio aeioe?eueii aeie?aieoe i?ae?icae?e
oi?aae?iiy e?aaeeoiei ?eceeii.

Oi?aae?iiy e?aaeeoiei ?eceeii ia? cae?enithaaoenue ca oaeith
eiioeaiooaeueiith noaiith: ye?niee aiae?c-e?euee?nia ioe?iea –
a?aooaaiiy a i?eeiyoo? ??oaiue.

O na?oia?e aaie?anuee?e i?aeoeoe? oa iaoeia?e e?oa?aoo?? ?nio? iecea
i?aeoiae?a aei oi?aae?iiy e?aaeeoiei ?eceeii. Aea , ?acii c oei ,
iniiaia i?iaeaia iieyaa? a oiio , ui iaoeia? aei?iaee iio?aaothoue
aaeaioaoe?? aai iiaeeo?eaoe?? , yea a a?aoiaoaaea iniaeeaino? no/aniiai
noaio a?o/eciyii? aeiiii?ee.Oae, cie?aia, o na?oia?e i?aeoeoe? aiae?co
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo i?aeoe/ii ia a?aoiao?oueny th?eaee/iee /eiiee, yeee ?
aeineoue nooo?aei aeey a?o/eciyieo eiia?oe?eieo aaie?a o no/anieo
oiiaao.

Aeey e?euee?nii? ioe?iee nooiaiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo cao?aeieie aaieaie
oe?iei aeei?enoiaothoueny eeaneo?eaoe?ei? iiaeae? , iaea?eueo a?aeiieie
c yeeo ? Z-iiaeaeue Aeueoiaia ? iiaeaeue iaaeyaeo ca e?aaeeoaie *anna?a.
Aea oe? iiaeae? a?aeiia?aeathoue oiiaai ?icaeiooi? ?eieiai? aeiiii?ee.
Aeey oiia ia?ao?aeii? aeiiii?ee Oe?a?ie iaiao?aeii ?ic?iaeoe aaeaeaaoi?
iiaeae? , ye? a?aoiaoaaee a , cie?aia , aaeocaa? iniaeeaino?
iice/aeueiee?a oa no?iee e?aaeeooaaiiy.

I?iaeaie aaeineiiaeaiiy oi?aae?iiy e?aaeeoiei ?eceeii iia’ycai? c
?icaoaeiaith aaeaeaaoieo aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ieo iaoiae?a ? iaeaaeaoue
aei ?ioaineaii ii?aoeueiaoaaieo , iaeiae iino?eii ci?ithaai? oiiae
ainiiaea?thaaiiy aeiaaathoue ei?aeoe?? a i?aeoiaeao aei ae??oaieo
ieoaiue ? i?iaeai, noaaeyoue iia? caaea/?.

A ae?oaiio ?icae?e? “Eiioeaiooaeuei? canaaee ye?niiai oa e?euee?niiai
aiae?co e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo” ?ice?eaa?oueny nooi?noue ye?niiai aiae?co
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo ? aeine?aeaeothoueny eiai e?euee?ni? iieacieee oa
iaoiaee e?euee?nii? ioe?iee.

sse?niee aiae?c iieyaa? o anoaiiaeaii? nooiino? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo ,.
?aeaioeo?eaoe?? eiai aeaea?ae (/eiiee?a) , a oaeiae ia?aaeaa/a?
i?iaaaeaiiy eia?ei-eiia??i?niiai iiaeaethaaiiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo.

Aei?a/ii ?ic??ciyoe oae? neeaaeia? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo: e?aaeeoiee ?ecee
uiaei iice/aeueieea, e?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei niiniao caaacia/aiiy iiceee,
e?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee, caaaeaiee e?aaeeoiee ?ecee oa
ii?ooaeueiee e?aaeeoiee ?ecee.

E?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei iiceo/aeueieea – i??a(eiia??i?noue) oiai, ui
e?aaeeo aoaea ia?aaaaeaiee aei ?ic?yaeo i?iaeaiieo ( i?ieiiaiaaiee aai
aeianaiee ia i?ino?i/aiiy ).

E?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei niiniao caaacia/aiiy iiceee – i??a(eiia??i?noue)
oiai, ui aaieo ia aaeanoueny ca ?aooiie caaacia/aiiy iiceee iie?eoe
iiaeeea? ao?aoe /a?ac iaaeeiiaiiy iice/aeueieeii nai?o ciaia’ycaiue.

A yeino? caaacia/aiiy iiceee iae/ano?oa aenooiathoue aa?aio?y(ii?oea),
no?aooaaiiy oa canoaaa.

A oaae.1 iaaaaeaii ani?oeiaio oa oa?aeoa?enoeee /eiiee?a e?aaeeoiiai
?eceeo uiaei iice/aeueieea oa e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei canoaae. *eiieee
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei aa?aioa(ii?o/eoaey)oa e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei
no?aoiaeea aoaeooue aiaeia?/i? /eiieeai e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei
iice/aeueieea.

?icaeyaeath/e iaaaaeai? /eiieee ye iani?eyoeea? iiae?? ? caaaeath/e ia
oa, ui aiie ? noi?nieie aeiaaeeiaeie iiae?yie, iiaeia caienaoe oi?ioee
aeey ia/eneaiiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo(eiia??iino?) uiaei
iiceaeueieea(P(A)), e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei aa?aioa(ii?o/eoaey)(P(Ba)),
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei no?aoiaeea(P(Bc)) ? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei
canoaae(P(Bc)).

P(A)(P(Ba),P(Bc))=1-(1-p11)(1-p12)(1-p13)(1-p2)(1-p3)
(1)

P(Bc)=1-(1-p4)(1-p5)(1-p6)(1-p7)
(2)

Oaaeeoey 1

Ani?oeiaio oa oa?aeoa?enoeee /eiiee?a e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo

Iaeiaioaaiiy /eiieeaOa?aeoa?enoeea /eiieea1. Ia’?eoeaiee p1O?iainia?
iiaeeeaino? iice/aeueieea1.1.Aaeocaaee p11Ia?ai???ioaoe?y aeiiii?ee,
ciaioaiiy iiieoo ia i?iaeoeoe?th aeaii? aaeoc?1.2. Nenoaiiee p12Ci?ie
a aeiiii?/i?e nenoai?, ye? iiaeooue cae?enieoe iaaaoeaiee aieea ia
o?iainiaee noai iice/aeueieea (iai?eeeaae, ci?ie a iiaeaoeiaiio
caeiiiaeaanoa?)1.3. Oi?n-iaaei?iee p13Caieao?one, iiaai?, eaoano?ioe,
nia?/?, no?aeee, a?enueeia? ae??2. Noa’?eoeaiee p2?aiooaoe?y
iice/aeueieea a ae?eiaiio na?o?, eiai a?aeiia?aeaeuei?noue ? aioiai?noue
aeeiiaoe acyo? ciaia’ycaiiy3. TH?eaee/iee p3Iaaeie?ee a neeaaeaii?
oa ioi?ieaii? e?aaeeoiiai aeiaiai?o4. Iae?ea?aei?noue p4Iaiiaeeea?noue
?aae?caoe?? canoaae5. Eii’thieoo?iee p5Iiaeeeaa ciaoe?iaiiy canoaae ca
ia??iae ae?? e?aaeeoii? oaiaee6. Iai?eaeaoi?noue aei caa??aaiiy
p6Caaeaaeue canoaae7. TH?eaee/iee p7Iaaeie?ee a neeaaeaii? oa
ioi?ieaii? aeiaiai?o canoaae

E?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee(P(C)) – oea aeiaooie
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei iice/aeueieea ia e?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei niiniao
caaacia/aiiy iiceee:

P(C )=P(A)P(B).
(3)

I?e ?ic?aooieo e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee ne?ae
a?aoiaoaaoe oo ianoaaeio, ui oaiaea uiaei caaacia/aiiy iiaa?iaiiy iiceee
(aa?aio?eiee eeno, aeiaia?? ii?oee, aeiaia?? no?aooaaiiy, aeiaia??
canoaae) ca?aeii c /eiiei caeiiiaeaanoaii Oe?a?ie i?aeii?yaeeiaaia
ae?eniino? e?aaeeoiiai aeiaiai?o. C o?aooaaiiyi oeueiai e?aaeeoiee ?ecee
uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee aei??aithaaoeia:

P(C)=(1-(1-p11)(1-p12)(1-p13)(1-p2))p(B)+p3-(1-(1-p11)(1-p12)(1-p13)(1-
p2))p(B)p3.
(4)

Caaaeaiee e?aaeeoiee ?ecee(s?) – oea aeiaooie e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei
e?aaeeoii? oaiaee(P(C )) ia noio iiceee (s):

s?=sP(C )
(5)

Ii?ooaeueiee e?aaeeoiee ?ecee – i??a(nooi?iue) ?eceeiaaiino? e?aaeeoiiai
ii?ooaey(noeoiiino? an?o e?aaeeoieo oaiae) eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo.

Ia noaae?? e?euee?nii? ioe?iee e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo aecia/a?oueny iaa??
eiai e?euee?nieo iieaciee?a, a oaeiae anoaiiaeth?oueny yeee iaoiae
iaeaeioe?euei?oa ia?aoe aeey ioe?iee eiaeiiai c /eiiee?a e?aaeeoiiai
?eceeo.

Aeey ioe?iee e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee iiaeia
aeei?enoiaoaaoe iieacieee eiia??iino? oa caaaeaiiai e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo.

Aeey ioe?iee ii?ooaeueiiai e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo aeioe?eueiei ?
aeei?enoaiiy nenoaie e?euee?nieo iieaciee?a aeiiii?/iiai ?eceeo c
a?aeiia?aeieie iiaeeo?eaoe?yie oi?ioe aeey ?o ?ic?aooieo.

Cie?aia, oea:

1. Niiae?aaia aaee/eia caeoe?a ca e?aaeeoiei ii?ooaeai:

wmetafile8? ??E???????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????@
???&??yyyy?????Ayyy»yyya ??u?????&?
?MathType???????uLthA?????aea:

si — noia ?-oi? e?aaeeoii? oaiaee, i = 1,2,…, n;

pi(c) — e?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei ?-oi? e?aaeeoii? oaiaee.

2. Na?aaeiueicaaaeaiee e?aaeeoiee ii?ooaeueiee ?ecee:

wmetafile8? ??a???????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
?????&??yyyy?????AyyyYyyy@??Y?????&?
?MathType??@???u0thY?????3. Aeenia?n?y (aa??aoe?y) eiia??iinoae ao?ao
iice/aieo eioo?a ca e?aaeeoieie oaiaeaie, ye? neeaaeathoue e?aaeeoiee
ii?ooaeue aaieo:

wmetafile8? ??i???????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
 ????&??yyyy?????Ayyy?yyy@??S?????&?
?MathType???????uYya?????aea:

wmetafile8? ??^???????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
@a???&??yyyy?????Ayyy»yyy ??u?????&?
?MathType???????u?th??????4.1. Iiceoeaia nai?aa??aoe?y eiia??iinoae
ao?ao iice/aieo eioo?a ca e?aaeeoieie oaiaeaie , ye? ceeaaeathoue
e?aaeeoiee ii?ooaeue aaieo:

wmetafile8? ??Y???????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????@?
???&??yyyy?????Ayyy»yyyA??u?????&??MathType????
???u?????????”????-????? v ??? µ???u?th??????aea:

n — ianya e?aaeeoiiai ii?ooaey (e?euee?noue oaiae);

ti — a?ae’?ii? a?aeoeeaiiy eiia??iinoae ao?ao iice/aieo eioo?a ca
e?aaeeoieie oaiaeaie , ye? ceeaaeathoue e?aaeeoiee ii?ooaeue aaieo

a?ae na?aaeiueicaaaeaiiai e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo(eiia??iino?), oiaoi:

wmetafile8? ??u???????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
A????&??yyyy?????Ayyy?yyyA??t?????&?
?MathType???????uLthA?????4.2. Iaaaoeaia nai?aa??aoe?y eiia??iinoae
ao?ao iice/aieo eioo?a ca e?aaeeoieie oaiaeaie , ye? ceeaaeathoue
e?aaeeoiee ii?ooaeue aaieo:

wmetafile8? ??Y???????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????@
???&??yyyy?????Ayyy»yyya??u?????&??MathType????
???u?????????”????-????? n — ianya e?aaeeoiiai ii?ooaey
(e?euee?noue oaiae);

li — aeiaeaoi? a?aeoeeaiiy eiia??iinoae ao?ao iice/aieo eioo?a ca
e?aaeeoieie oaiaeaie , ye? ceeaaeathoue e?aaeeoiee ii?ooaeue aaieo,
a?ae na?aaeiueicaaaeaiiai e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo(eiia??iino?), oiaoi:

wmetafile8? ??u???????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
A????&??yyyy?????Ayyy?yyyA??t?????&?
?MathType???????uLthA?????5.1. Iiceoeaia na?aaei? nai?eaaae?aoe/ia
a?aeoeeaiiy eiia??iinoae ao?ao iice/aieo eioo?a ca e?aaeeoieie oaiaeaie
, ye? ceeaaeathoue e?aaeeoiee ii?ooaeue aaieo :

wmetafile8? ?????????????
???????????yyy????.????1????????????? 
???&??yyyy?????Ayµya U???&?
?MathType??`????u????????????-?????„

???cY???u??
??????????-????kY???u®???-?????u¶???S?”???S?”
???S?I ???u@th??????5.2. Iaaaoeaia na?aaei? nai?eaaae?aoe/ia
a?aeoeeaiiy eiia??iinoae ao?ao iice/aieo eioo?a ca e?aaeeoieie oaiaeaie
, ye? ceeaaeathoue e?aaeeoiee ii?ooaeue aaieo :

wmetafile8? ?????????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
``???&??yyyy?????Ayµy ???&?
?MathType??@????u????????????-?????„”???c]???u??
??????????-????k]???u????-?????u????S?&???S?&
???S????u@th?????? O a?aeiiniiio ae?ac? nooi?iue ?eceeiaaiino?
e?aaeeoiiai ii?ooaey iiaeia aei??thaaoe oaeiae ca aeiiiiiaith ianooiiiai
eiao?oe??ioa:

wmetafile8? ?????????????
???????????yyy????.????1????????????? a
???&??yyyy?????Ayyy¶yyy  ??Oe?????&??MathType????
???u?????????”????-?????ueA???ue? ???u?th??????Aeey
e?euee?niiai aiae?co e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo aeioe?eueii aeei?enoiaoaaoe
ieceo iaoiae?a: iaoiae aeene?ei?iaioiiai aiae?co(IAeA), ?icieea/anoee
iaoiae aiae?co ???a?o?e(?IA?), iaoiae noaoenoe/ieo aei?iaoaaiue(iaoiae
Iiioa-Ea?ei), iaoiae aenia?oieo ioe?iie.

IAeA aeioe?eueii canoiniaoaaoe aeey ioe?iee aaeocaaiai(o?iainiaiai)
/eiieea e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei iice/aeueieea, caaaeath/e ia iayai?noue
e?euee?nieo iieaciee?a(o?iainiaeo eiao?oe??io?a) oa ?o noaoenoeee.
?acoeueoaoii canoinoaaiiy IAeA ia? noaoe aeene?ei?iaioia iiaeaeue, yea
aea? ciiao a?aeie?aieoe iaae?eieo iice/aeueiee?a a?ae iaiaae?eieo.

?IA? aeioe?eueii canoiniaoaaoe aeey ioe?iee oeo /eiiee?a(aeaea?ae)

e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo, ye? iio?aaothoue iiia?aaeiuei? no?oeoo?ecaoe??, ? ii
ieo a?aenooi? e?euee?ni? iieacieee. Aei oaeeo /eiiee?a a?aeiineoueny,
cie?aia, ?aiooaoe?y iice/aeueieea. Aeei?enoiaoth/e ?IA?, iiaeia oaeiae
?ic?iaeoe iaoiaeeeo ?ioaeaeooae?ciaaii? ioe?iee e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino?
iice/aeueieea ye niiniao e?euee?niiai aiae?co e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo.
?ic?iaea oaei? iaoiaeeee iieyaa? a cae?eniaii? oaeeo iniiaieo e?ie?a.

E?ie 1. Oi?ioaaiiy aaaaoi??aiaai? ???a?o?/ii? no?oeoo?e
e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea. Ia?o? o?e ??ai? oe??? no?oeoo?e
iaaaaeaii ia ?en.1.

E?ie 2. Iiaoaeiaa iao?eoeue iiia?ieo ii??aiyiue c ia/?oeee ioe?ieaie
aeey aeaiaio?a, ye? ciaoiaeyoueny ia ie?aio ??aiyo ???a?o??
e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea. I?e oeueiio aeei?enoiaothoueny
ye?ni? (aa?aaeuei?) ioe?iee aeoi? c ?o ia/?oeeie iiiaeeiaie.

Aeey io?eiaiiy iaea?eueo aoaeoeaii? iaoiaeeee ioe?iee
e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea i?e aecia/aii? iao?eoeue iiia?ieo
ii??aiyiue ne?ae aeei?enoiaoaaoe ioe?iee oao?aoe?a Iaoe?iiaeueiiai aaieo
Oe?a?ie, eiia?oe?eieo aaie?a, aoaeeoi?nueeeo o??i, a oaeiae iaoeiaoe?a,
ye? caeiathoueny oe??th i?iaeaiith.

E?ie 3. Ia iniia? iao?eoeue iiia?ieo ii??aiyiue, aeei?enoiaoth/e
oaoi?eo na?aaeiuei? aaiiao?e/ii? oa iaoaiaoe/iiai aia?aoo oai???
ia/?oeeo(?icieea/anoeo) iiiaeei, ia/eneth?ii aaaia? eiao?oe??ioe. Aiie
a?aeia?aaeathoue aaaeeea?noue eiaeiiai c aeaiaio?a ???a?o?/ii? no?oeoo?e
e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea c iiaeyaeo a?aeiia?aeiiai aeaiaioa,
yeee ciaoiaeeoueny ia aaciina?aaeiuei aeuiio ??ai? ???a?o??.

E?ie 4. Ia/eneaiiy aaeoi?a i??i?eoao?a aeey iieaciee?a, ui
ciaoiaeyoueny ia iaeieae/iio ??ai? ???a?o??, c iiaeyaeo ?ioaa?iaaiiai
e?eoa??th – e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea.

Iaoiae noaoenoe/ieo aei?iaoaaiue aeioe?eueii canoiniaoaaoe aeey ioe?iee
th?eaee/iiai /eiieea e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo, caaaeath/e ia noaiaea?oio oi?io
th?eaee/ieo oaiae, ui oeeaaeathoueny a i?ioean? e?aaeeooaaiiy.

Aeey ioe?iee nenoaiiiai oa oi?n-iaaei?iiai /eiiee?a e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo,
a oaeiae on?o /eiiee?a ?eceeo uiaei canoaae(ie??i th?eaee/iiai),
iaeiioeiaeuei?oei ? canoinoaaiiy iaoiaeo aenia?oieo ioe?iie.

A o?aoueiio ?icae?e? “Eiiieaenia iaoiaeeea ioe?iee e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo oa
eiai a?aooaaiiy i?e i?eeiyoo? ??oaiue” ?icaeyioo? ieoaiiy aecia/aiiy
?eceeiaaiino? e?aaeeoii? oaiaee oa a?aooaaiiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo i?e
ae??oaii? ieoaiiy i?i iiaeeea?noue iaaeaiiy e?aaeeoo ? i?e anoaiiaeaii?
noaaee a?aenioea ca iueiai.

Eiiieaenia iaoiaeeea ioe?iee e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea oa
a?aeiia?aeiiai nooiaiy ?eceeo aaieo aaco?oueny ia aeei?enoaii? ?IA?,
IAeA oa iaoiaeo aenia?oieo ioe?iie.

Nii/aoeo oi?io?oueny ???a?o?/ia no?oeoo?a e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino?
iice/aeueieea oa a?aeiia?aeiiai ?eceeo aaieo. ?? iaaaaeaii ia ?en.1.

I?ney oeueiai cae?enith?oueny ioe?iea eeano iice/aeueieea ca
noae?eoa??yie e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino?(o?iainiaeie iiaeeeainoyie
iice/aeueieea, eiai ?aiooaoe??th, caaacia/aiiyi iiceee) ? i?iaiaeeoueny
o?ainoi?iaoe?y io?eiaieo ioe?iie o eiia??iino? iaaaaeaieo iiae?e.

Ioe?iea eeano,C Eiia??i?noue,P

[1;1,5) 0,05

[1,5;2,5) 0,20

[2,5;3,5) 0,35

[3,5;4] 0,50

Canoiniaoth/e i?aaeea iia?oaaiiy c eiia??iinoyie iiae?e, iiaeaii
caienaoe e?ioeaao oi?ioeo aeey aecia/aiiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo aaieo,
iia’ycaiiai c e?aaeeoini?iiiaei?noth iice/aeueieea (?):

P=(P11+ ?12 – ?11*?12)*?2
(17)

I?ney oeueiai io?eiaia eiia??i?noue(?ecee) ii?iae?co?oueny aei ioe?iee
eeano iice/aeueieea ca eiai e?aaeeoini?iiiaei?noth oa a?aeiia?aeiei
nooiaiai e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo aaieo. Ie i?iiiio?ii ?iaeoe oea ca
ianooiiith iaoeiai-iaa?oioiaaiith noaiith :

?ecee (eiia??i?noue),P Eean,C

0,289
?V

Caaa?oaeueiith noaae??th oi?aae?iiy e?aaeeoiei ?eceeii ? eiai a?aooaaiiy
i?e i?eeiyoo? a?aeiia?aeieo ??oaiue, aei yeeo a?aeiinyoueny:
iiaeeea?noue(aeioe?euei?noue) iaaeaiiy e?aaeeoo, anoaiiaeaiiy noaaee
a?aenioea ca e?aaeeo.

?en.1. ???a?o?/ia no?oeoo?a e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea oa
a?aeiia?aeiiai nooiaiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo aaieo.

Aeai?eoi i?eeiyooy ??oaiiy i?i iiaeeea?noue(aeioe?euei?noue) iaaeaiiy
e?aaeeoo c o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo neeaaea?oueny c o?ueio iine?aeiaieo
e?ie?a.

E?ie 1. Cae?enith?oueny a?aaeaoe?y eiia??iinoae aieeao /eiiee?a
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei iice/aeueieea ia iani?eyoeeaee ?acoeueoao
e?aaeeoii? oaiaee oa aecia/a?oueny iaeneiaeueii aeiionoeia cia/aiiy
eiaeii? eiia??iino?.

A?aaeaoe?y eiia??iinoae, ye? aecia/ai? ca aeiiiiiaith iaoiaeo
aeene?ei?iaioiiai aiae?co, iiaea aooe cae?eniaia ia iniia? iioeaeiaiai
?ioa?aaeo(Z10):

1) i?e wmetafile8? ?????????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
 `???&??yyyy?????Ayyy1/4yyy ???????&?
?MathType???????uAy??????2) i?e wmetafile8? ??2???????????
???????????yyy????.????1????????????? 
???&??yyyy?????Ayyy1/4yyya???????&?
?MathType???????u?th??????3) i?e wmetafile8? ??2???????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
????&??yyyy?????Ayyy1/4yyy@??Ue?????&?
?MathType??A????u?th??????4) i?e wmetafile8? ?????????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
 @???&??yyyy?????Ayyy1/4yyy????????&?
?MathType???????uAy??????Iaeneiaeueii aeiionoeiei cia/aiiyi
eiia??iino? aieeao iaaiiai /eiieea e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei
iice/aeueieea ia iani?eyoeeaee ?acoeueoao e?aaeeoii? oaiaee, aecia/aii?
?c canoinoaaiiyi iaoiaeo aeene?ei?iaioiiai aiae?co, iiaeia aaaaeaoe
/enei wmetafile8? ??j???????????
???????????yyy????.????1??????????????
???&??yyyy?????Ayyy?yyya??(?????&??MathType???
???u?????????”????-?????@????Ue???u?th??????Iaeneiaeuei
i aeiionoeiei cia/aiiyi eiia??iino? aieeao iaaiiai /eiieea e?aaeeoiiai
?eceeo uiaei iice/aeueieea ia iani?eyoeeaee ?acoeueoao e?aaeeoii?
oaiaee, aecia/aii? ?c canoinoaaiiyi iaoiaeo aenia?oieo ioe?iie aai
iaoiaeo noaoenoe/ieo aei?iaoaaiue, iiaeia aaaaeaoe /enei 0,5.

E?ie 2. Anoaiiaeththoueny iaeneiaeueii aeiionoei? cia/aiiy noeoiiiai
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee oa ii?ooaeueiiai e?aaeeoiiai
?eceeo.

Aeoiaey/e c oiai, ui noeoiiee e?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee –
oea aeiaooie e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei iice/aeueieea oa e?aaeeoiiai
?eceeo uiaei niiniao caaacia/aiiy iiceee ? eia?/ii i?eeiyaoe ca
iaeneiaeueii aeiionoei? cia/aiiy oeeo ?ecee?a /enei 0,5, iiaeia c?iaeoe
aeniiaie i?i oa, ui iaeneiaeueii aeiionoeiei cia/aiiyi noeoiiiai
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee iiaeia aaaaeaoe /enei
0,25.wmetafile8? ??T?????????????
???????????yyy????.????1??????????????
???&??yyyy?????AyyyAyyya???A?????&?
?MathType??P????&??yyyy??????????

Ne?ae cacia/eoe, ui iaeneiaeueii aeiionoei? cia/aiiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo
uiaei iice/aeueieea oa e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei niiniao caaacia/aiiy
iiceee ie?aii anoaiiaethaaoe iaaeioe?eueii. Oea iiynith?oueny oei, ui
aeey e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei iice/aeueieea anoaiiaeththoueny
iaeneiaeueii aeiionoei? cia/aiiy eiai neeaaeiaeo (eiia??iinoae aieeao
/eiiee?a e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo ia ia?aaaaeaiiy e?aaeeoo aei ?ic?yaeo
i?iaeaiieo), a caaacia/aiiy iiceee c aoaeue-yeei nooiaiai ?eceeo (ie??i
1) cieaeo? e?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei iice/aeueieea. Iecueeee nooi?iue
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei niiniao caaacia/aiiy iiceee (0,2) iiaea
eiiiainoaaoe aenieee nooi?iue e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei iice/aeueieea
(0,7) ? aea? ciiao i?eaanoe cia/aiiy noeoiiiai e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei
e?aaeeoii? oaiaee(?ecee ao?aoe iice/aieo eioo?a + ?ecee ianai?/aniiai
iiaaoaiiy iiceee) aei aeiionoeiiai ??aiy wmetafile8?
??3??????????? ???????????yyy????.????1??????
???????aA???&??yyyy?????Ayyyayyy???A?????&?
?MathType??P????u?th??????I?e ae??oaii? ieoaiiy i?i iiaeeea?noue
oeeaaeaiiy e?aaeeoii? oaiaee c iioaioe?eiei iice/aeueieeii ne?ae oaeiae
a?aoiaoaaoe aieea aeaii? oaiaee ia aaee/eio ii?ooaeueiiai e?aaeeoiiai
?eceeo. sseui iiaa e?aaeeoia oaiaea ?iaeoue eiai
eaoano?io?/iei(niiae?aaia aaee/eia caeoe?a ca e?aaeeoiei ii?ooaeai
ia?aaeuo? eai?oae aaieo), oi a oaeiio aeiaaeeo ne?ae a?aeiiaeoenue a?ae
ia?.

E?ie 3. Aeai? uiaei iioaioe?eiiai iice/aeueieea ii??aiththoueny c
e?eoa??aeueieie cia/aiiyie ? ia i?aenoaa? oeueiai ii??aiyiiy
i?eeia?oueny a?aeiia?aeia ??oaiiy (iaaeaoe e?aaeeo iice/aeueieeo /e
a?aeiiaeoe eiio a oeueiio).

E?aaeeoiee ?ecee ? iaeiei c iniiaieo /eiiee?a, ui cae?eniththoue aieea
ia aaee/eio a?aenioeiai? noaaee ca ei?enooaaiiy e?aaeeoii.

Oi?ioea aeey aecia/aiiy noaaee a?aenioea ca e?aaeeo c o?aooaaiiyi
?eceeo ao?aoe (iiaii? aai /anoeiai?) iice/aieo eioo?a oa ?eceeo
ianai?/aniiai iiaa?iaiiy e?aaeeoo aoaea oaeith:

wmetafile8? ??®???????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
 A???&??yyyy?????Ayyy1/4yyy????????&??MathType????
???u?????????”????-?????CU???C‚???u y??????

aea: wmetafile8? ?? Pn? – iaoaiaoe/ia niiae?aaiiy eiia??iino?
ao?aoe (iiaii? aai /anoeiai?) iice/aieo eioo?a;

Rm – iaeneiaeueiii?iaiiciaaia aaee/eia noaaee a?aenioea ca
e?aaeeo ia ?eieo a ia??iae iiaeeeai? cao?eiee iiaa?iaiiy e?aaeeoo;

T0 – oa?i?i e?aaeeoo;

TN? – na?aaeiueiniiae?aaiee oa?i?i iiaeeeai? cao?eiee iiaa?iaiiy
e?aaeeoo.

I?e anoaiiaeaii? noaaee a?aenioea ca eiaeiith eiie?aoiith e?aaeeoiith
oaiaeith, ie??i ?eceeo ao?aoe (iiaii? aai /anoeiai?) iice/aieo eioo?a oa
?eceeo ianai?/aniiai iiaa?iaiiy e?aaeeoo, oaeiae ne?ae a?aoiaoaaoe
aieea, yeee cae?enith? aeaia e?aaeeoia oaiaea ia nooi?iue ?eceeiaaiino?
e?aaeeoiiai ii?ooaey aaieo a oe?eiio.

Oi?ioea aeey aecia/aiiy noaaee a?aenioea ca e?aaeeo iaoeia oaeee
aeaeyae:

wmetafile8? ?????????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
`????&??yyyy?????Ayyy1/4yyy@?? ?????&??MathType??`????u
y??????aea wmetafile8? ??‰????????????
???????????yyy????.????1?????????????
A@???&??yyyy?????AyyyAyyy?????????&?
?MathType??0????u?th??????wmetafile8? ??4???????????
???????????yyy????.????1??????????????
???&??yyyy?????Ayyy?yyya??:?????&?
?MathType??`????uAy??????aea: L0 – na?aaeiueicaaaeaiee ii?ooaeueiee
e?aaeeoiee ?ecee aac o?aooaaiiy iiai? iiceee;

L1 – na?aaeiueicaaaeaiee ii?ooaeueiee e?aaeeoiee ?ecee c
o?aooaaiiyi iiai? iiceee.

AENIIAEE OA I?IIICEOe??

1. A ?acoeueoao? iaoeiaiai aeine?aeaeaiiy anoaiiaeaii, ui iaea?eueo
aaaiieie /eiieeaie e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo aeey oe?a?inueeeo eiia?oe?eieo
aaie?a ia no/aniiio aoai? ?: iecuee? o?iainia? iiaeeeaino?
iice/aeueieea, eiai ?aiooaoe?y, ci?ie a aeiiii?/i?e nenoai?,
oi?n-iaaei?i? ianoaaeie, iaaeie?ee a neeaaeaii? oa ioi?ieaii?
th?eaee/ieo oaiae, ui oeeaaeathoueny a i?ioean? e?aaeeooaaiiy.

2. Iaa?oioiaaii iaiao?aei?noue aeie?aieaiiy a no?oeoo?? e?aaeeoiiai
aeaia?oaiaioo eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo i?ae?icae?eo oi?aae?iiy e?aaeeoiei
?eceeii oa i?iaiae?ciaaii iniiai? caaaeaiiy, ui iieeaaeathoueny ia
neoaeaiaoe?a oeueiai i?ae?icae?eo.

3.Aaaeeeaei oai?aoe/iei ?acoeueoaoii aeine?aeaeaiiy ? aeie?aieaiiy
neeaaeiaeo e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo: ?ecee uiaei iice/aeueieea, ?ecee uiaei
niiniao caaacia/aiiy iiaa?iaiiy iiceee, ?ecee uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee,
ii?ooaeueiee ?ecee.

4. Na?aae iniiaieo oai?aoe/ieo ?acoeueoao?a aeena?oaoe?? ? aaoi?nueea
eiioeaioe?y oi?aae?iiy e?aaeeoiei ?eceeii eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo. Eiai
i?iiiio?oueny cae?enithaaoe ca oaeith eiioeaiooaeueiith noaiith: ye?niee
aiae?c – e?euee?nia ioe?iea – a?aooaaiiy a i?eeiyoo? ??oaiue.

5. Aeey aaeaeaaoii? ioe?iee e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo iiaoaeiaaii
eia?ei-eiia??i?ni? iiaeae?.

E?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei iice/aeueieea(aa?aioa, no?aoiaeea, canoaae) – oea
noia /eiiee?a ?eceeo, ye? iiaeia ?icaeyaeaoe ye noi?ni? eiia??i?ni?
iiae??.

E?aaeeoiee ?ecee uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee – oea aeiaooie
aaee/eie(eiia??iino?) e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei iice/aeueieea ia
aaee/eio(eiia??i?noue) e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei niiniao caaacia/aiiy
iiceee.

6. Cai?iiiiiaaii nenoaio e?euee?nieo iieaciee?a nooiaiy e?aaeeoiiai
?eceeo. A?eueo?noue c ieo ? iiaeeo?eaoe?yie a?aeiia?aeieo iieaciee?a
aeiiii?/iiai ?eceeo.

7. Iaa?oioiaaii aea?? iaaiiai iaoiaeo (eiia?iaoe?? iaoiae?a) aeey
ioe?iee eiaeiiai c /eiiee?a e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo. C’yniaaii, ui iaea?eueo
aeioe?eueiei aeey ioe?iee noeoiiiai e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei e?aaeeoii?
oaiaee ? aeei?enoaiiy ia canaaeao nenoaiiiai i?aeoiaeo eiiieaenio
iaoiae?a: aeene?ei?iaioiiai aiae?co, aenia?oieo ioe?iie, noaoenoe/ieo
aei?iaoaaiue (iaoiae Iiioa-Ea?ei).

8. ?ic?iaeaii iaoiaeeeo ?ioaeaeooae?ciaaii? ioe?iee
e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea ye niiniao e?euee?niiai aiae?co
e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo uiaei e?aaeeoii? oaiaee. Oey iaoiaeeea aaco?oueny ia
aeei?enoaii? ?IA?.

9. ?ic?iaeaii aeai?eoi i?eeiyooy iaoeiai-iaa?oioiaaiiai ??oaiiy i?i
iiaeeea?noue (aeioe?euei?noue) iaaeaiiy e?aaeeoo c o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo,
ui neeaaea?oueny c o?ueio iine?aeiaieo e?ie?a.

10. Cai?iiiiiaaii iaoiaeeeo oa a?aeiia?aei? ?icai?ioo? oi?ioee aeey
aecia/aiiy aaee/eie noaaee a?aenioea ca e?aaeeo c o?aooaaiiyi nooiaiy
?eceeo. C?iaeaii aeniiaie, ui i?e ?? iiaeaethaaii? iaiao?aeii a?aooaaoe
oae? neeaaeia?: “a?eueio a?ae ?eceeo noaaeo a?aenioea”, “i?ai?th ca
?ecee ao?aoe (iiaii? aai /anoeiai?) iice/aieo eioo?a”, “i?ai?th ca ?ecee
ianai?/aniiai iiaa?iaiiy e?aaeeoo” oa “i?ai?th (cieaeeo) ca aieea aeaii?
e?aaeeoii? oaiaee ia nooi?iue ?eceeiaaiino? e?aaeeoiiai ii?ooaey”.

IA?AE?E IIOAE?EIAAIEO I?AOeUe

O oaoiaeo aeaeaiiyo:

1. A?oe?inueeee A., Aaeeei?aaiaiei A., Iaeiia/iee ss., Ia?ia??anueeee
I. Iiaeeaeaiee e?euee?niee aiae?c e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea ye
can?a cieaeaiiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo// Aaie?anueea ni?aaa.-1998.-
?6.-n45-49.-0,5 ae?oe.a?e./Caeiaoaa/ai i?aeaioiaeaii 0,05 ae?oe. a?e./

Iniaenoee aianie Ia?ia??anueeiai I.A.: aiae?c nenoaie iieaciee?a
e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea.

2. A?oe?inueeee A., Ia?ia??anueeee I. Aecia/aiiy ?aeoeiao aaieo
ana?aaeei? aea??ee// A?niee IAO.-1999.- ?2.-n.-61-62.-0,25 ae?oe. a?e./
Caeiaoaa/ai i?aeaioiaeaii 0,12 ae?oe. a?e./

Iniaenoee aianie Ia?ia??anueeiai I.A.: ?ica’ycaiiy caaea/?
aecia/aiiy ?aeoeiao aaieo ana?aaeei? aea??ee.

3. A?oe?inueeee A., Ia?ia??anueeee I. ?ioaeaeooae?ciaaia e?euee?nia
ioe?iea e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea //O?iaine Oe?a?ie. -1998.
-?5. -n.5-13.-0,83 ae?oe. a?e./Caeiaoaa/ai i?aeaioiaeaii 0,4 ae?oe.
a?e./

Iniaenoee aianie Ia?ia??anueeiai I.A.: oi?ioaaiiy ???a?o?/ii?
no?oeoo?e e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea.

4. A?oe?inueeee A., Ia?ia??anueeee I. E?aaeeoiee ?ecee oa eiai
a?aooaaiiy i?e ia/eneaii? noaaee a?aenioea //Aaie?anueea ni?aaa. -1997.
-?5. -n.63-66.-0,5 ae?oe. a?e./Caeiaoaa/ai i?aeaioiaeaii 0,25 ae?oe.
a?e./

Iniaenoee aianie Ia?ia??anueeiai I.A.: iiiyooy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo
oa ?o aecia/aiiy, iiaeaeue aecia/aiiy noaaee a?aenioea ca e?aaeeo c
o?aooaaiiyi ii?ooaeueiiai ?eceeo.

5. Ia?ia??anueeee I. Canoinoaaiiy aeene?ei?iaioiiai aiae?co a
ioe?ithaaii? e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo// Iaoeiia ia?iaea ?ioi?iaoe??.
I?aea?aeii/ee iaoeiaee ca??iee. Aei. 62.-E.: EIAO,1999.-n.110-117.-0,60
ae?oe. a?e.

6. Ia?ia??anueeee I. Ioe?iea e?aaeeoini?iiiaeiino? iice/aeueieea
//O?iaine Oe?a?ie.-1999.- ?1.-n.19-22.-0,25 ae?oe. a?e.

7. Ia?ia??anueeee I. Ioe?iea oa ?aaoethaaiiy e?aaeeoieo ?ecee?a o
aaie?anueeiio iaiaaeaeiaio? // Aeiiii?ea. O?iaine. I?aai.-1999.-
?1.-c.22-26.-0,48 ae?oe. a?e.

8. Ia?ia??anueeee I., A?oe?inueeee A. Aiae?c e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo a
eiai a?aooaaiiy i?e ia/eneaii? noaaee a?aenioea //Iaoeiia ia?iaea
?ioi?iaoe??. I?aea?aeii/ee iaoeiaee ca??iee. Aei. 61.-E.:
EIAO,1998.-n.93-101.-0,54 ae?oe. a?e. /Caeiaoaa/ai i?aeaioiaeaii 0,27
ae?oe. a?e./

Iniaenoee aianie Ia?ia??anueeiai I.A.: no?oeoo?a e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo ,
?aeaioeo?eaoe?y oa oa?aeoa?enoeea eiai aeaea?ae(/eiiee?a).

a ?ioeo aeaeaiiyo:

9. Aeoeeineee A. Ia?ia?eaneee A. E?aaeeoiue ?ene. Eae aai
ii?aaeaeeoue? //Aeaeiaay Oe?aeia. -1997. -?45. – n.6-0,36 ae?oe. a?e.
/Caeiaoaa/ai i?aeaioiaeaii 0,18 ae?oe. a?e./

Iniaenoee aianie Ia?ia??anueeiai I.A.: eia?ei-eiia??i?nia
iiaeaethaaiiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo.

10. Ia?ia??anueeee I. Iioei?caoe?y oi?aae?iiy e?aaeeoiei
?eceeii o eiia?oe?eiiio aaieo //I?iaeaie aeiiii?/iiai ?eceeo: aiae?c oa
oi?aae?iiy. Ca??iee iaoeiaeo i?aoeue ca iaoa??aeaie Ia?oi?
Anaoe?a?inueei? iaoeiai-i?aeoe/ii? eiioa?aioe??(26-28 aeiaoiy
1998?.).-E.: I?iina?oe Oe?a?ie, EIAO, 1998.-n.58-59.-0,03 ae?oe. a?e.

11. Ia?ia??anueeee I., A?oe?inueeee A. Iaoiaee e?euee?nii? ioe?iee oa
a?aooaaiiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo ia iniia? eia?ei-eiia??i?niiai i?aeoiaeo
//Aeiiiiao?e/i? iaoiaee ? iiaeae? a aeiiii?oe?: oai??y ? i?aeoeea
(Ca??iee iaoa??ae?a Ia?oi? Anaoe?a?inueei? aeiiiiao?e/ii? eiioa?aioe??,
2-4 ethoiai 1998?.).:Euea?a,1998.-c.29-37. -0,37 ae?oe. a?e.
/Caeiaoaa/ai i?aeaioiaeaii 0,19 ae?oe. a?e./

Iniaenoee aianie Ia?ia??anueeiai I.A.: eia?ei-eiia??i?nia
iiaeaethaaiiy e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo.

AIIOAOe??

Ia?ia??anueeee I.A. Iiaeaethaaiiy ?eceeo a e?aaeeoi?e iie?oeoe?
eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo.-?oeiien.

Aeena?oaoe?y ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy eaiaeeaeaoa aeiiii?/ieo
iaoe ca niaoe?aeuei?noth 08.03.02.- “Aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ia
iiaeaethaaiiy”.-Ee?anueeee iaoe?iiaeueiee aeiiii?/iee oi?aa?neoao, Ee?a,
1999.

A aeena?oaoe?oe?? iiaeaii oai?aoe/i? oa i?eeeaaei? aniaeoe
aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/iiai iiaeaethaaiiy ?eceeo a e?aaeeoi?e iie?oeoe?
eiia?oe?eiiai aaieo. Iaa?oioiaaia eiioeaioe?y oi?aae?iiy e?aaeeoiei
?eceeii, ui aeeth/a? a naaa ye?niee aiae?c, e?euee?nio ioe?ieo oa
a?aooaaiiy i?e i?eeiyoo? ??oaiue.

I?iaaaeaii aiae?c /eiiee?a(aeaea?ae) e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo ? eiai
eia?ei-eiia??i?nia iiaeaethaaiiy. Cai?iiiiiaaii nenoaio iieaciee?a
e?euee?nii? ioe?iee e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo. Iaa?oioiaaii aea?? iaaiiai
iaoiaeo(eiiieaeno iaoiae?a) aeey ioe?iee eiaeiiai c /eiiee?a e?aaeeoiiai
?eceeo. ?ic?iaeaii eiiieaenio iaoiaeeeo ioe?iee e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo ?
aeai?eoi i?eeiyooy ??oaiiy i?i iiaeeea?noue(aeioe?euei?noue) oeeaaeaiiy
e?aaeeoii? oaiaee c o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo. Cai?iiiiiaaii
aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/io iiaeaeue aeey aecia/aiiy noaaee a?aenioea ca
e?aaeeo c o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo.

Eeth/ia? neiaa: e?aaeeoiee ?ecee, /eiiee e?aaeeoiiai ?eceeo,
eia?ei-eiia??i?nia iiaeaethaaiiy, ?ioaeaeooae?ciaaia ioe?iea,
a?aenioeiaa noaaea.

Ia?ia?eaneee A.A. Iiaeaee?iaaiea ?enea a e?aaeeoiie iieeoeea
eiiia?/aneiai aaiea. – ?oeiienue.

Aeenna?oaoeey ia nieneaiea o/aiie noaiaie eaiaeeaeaoa yeiiiie/aneeo iaoe
ii niaoeeaeueiinoe 08.03.02 – “Yeiiiieei-iaoaiaoe/aneia iiaeaee?iaaiea”.
Eeaaneee iaoeeiiaeueiue yeiiiie/aneee oieaa?neoao, Eeaa, 1999.

Ioia/aaony, /oi a nia?aiaiiuo yeiiiie/aneeo oneiaeyo eiiia?/aneea aaiee
Oe?aeiu auioaeaeaiu iinoiyiii oniaa?oainoaiaaoue naith e?aaeeoioth
iieeoeeo. I?e yoii iaeiie ec iniiaiuo i?iaeai yaeyaony nieaeaiea noaiaie
aa ?eneiaaiiinoe. Aeey ?aoaiey yoie i?iaeaiu aiciiaeii ianniaia
i?eiaiaiea iaoiaeia yeiiiieei-iaoaiaoe/aneiai iiaeaee?iaaiey. A
aeenna?oaoeee iainiiaaia eiioeaioeey oi?aaeaiey e?aaeeoiui ?eneii,
eioi?ia aeeth/aao a naay ea/anoaaiiue aiaeec, eiee/anoaaiioth ioeaieo e
o/ao ?enea a i?eiyoee ?aoaiee.

Ea/anoaaiiue aiaeec caeeth/aaony a ii?aaeaeaiee nouiinoe e?aaeeoiiai
?enea, eaeaioeoeeaoeee aai enoi/ieeia(oaeoi?ia), a oaeaea
i?aaeoniao?eaaao i?iaaaeaiea eiaeei-aa?iyoiinoiiai iiaeaee?iaaiey
e?aaeeoiiai ?enea. Oeaeaniia?acii ?acee/aoue oaeea ninoaaeythuea
e?aaeeoiiai ?enea: e?aaeeoiue ?ene ii caaiueeo, e?aaeeoiue ?ene ii
niiniao iaania/aiey nnoaeu, e?aaeeoiue ?ene ii e?aaeeoiie naeaeea,
acaaoaiiue e?aaeeoiue ?ene e ii?ooaeueiue e?aaeeoiue ?ene. Iaeaieaa
aaniiuie oaeoi?aie e?aaeeoiiai ?enea aeey oe?aeineeo eiiia?/aneeo aaieia
ia nia?aiaiiii yoaia yaeythony: neaaua oeiainiaua aiciiaeiinoe caaiueea,
aai ?aiooaoeey, eciaiaiey a yeiiiie/aneie nenoaia, oi?n-iaaei?iua
ianoiyoaeuenoaa, iaaeinoaoee a ninoaaeaiee e ioi?ieaiee th?eaee/aneeo
naeaeie, niaa?oaaiuo a i?ioeanna e?aaeeoiaaiey.

Ia noaaeee eiee/anoaaiiie ioeaiee e?aaeeoiiai ?enea ii?aaeaeyaony
iaai?(nenoaia) aai eiee/anoaaiiuo iieacaoaeae, a oaeaea ii?aaeaeyaony
eaeie iaoiae iaeaieaa oeaeaniia?acii aua?aoue aeey ioeaiee eaaeaeiai ec
oaeoi?ia e?aaeeoiiai ?enea.

Aeey ioeaiee e?aaeeoiiai ?enea ii e?aaeeoiie naeaeea iiaeii
eniieueciaaoue iieacaoaee aa?iyoiinoe e acaaoaiiiai e?aaeeoiiai ?enea.
Aeey ioeaiee aea ii?ooaeueiiai e?aaeeoiiai ?enea oeaeaniia?aciui
yaeyaony eniieueciaaiea nenoaiu eiee/anoaaiiuo iieacaoaeae
yeiiiie/aneiai ?enea ec niioaaonoaothueie iiaeeoeeaoeeyie oi?ioe aeey eo
?ann/aoa. Eiee/anoaaiiue aiaeec e?aaeeoiiai ?enea oeaeaniia?acii
i?iaiaeeoue n i?eiaiaieai ?yaea yeiiiieei-iaoaiaoe/aneeo iaoiaeia:
iaoiaea aeene?eieiaioiiai aiaeeca, iaoiaea aiaeeca ea?a?oee, iaoiaea
noaoenoe/aneeo eniuoaiee(iaoiaea Iiioa-Ea?ei), iaoiaea yenia?oiuo
ioeaiie. Aeey aeinoeaeaiey iaeaieueoae aaeaeaaoiinoe ioeaiee e?aaeeoiiai
?enea iaiaoiaeeii eiiieaeniia eniieueciaaiea oeacaiiuo iaoiaeia.

Caeeth/eoaeueiie noaaeeae oi?aaeaiey e?aaeeoiui ?eneii yaeyaony aai o/ao
a i?eiyoee niioaaonoaothueo ?aoaiee, e /eneo eioi?uo ioiinyony:
aiciiaeiinoue(oeaeaniia?aciinoue) i?aaeinoaaeaiey e?aaeeoa, ii?aaeaeaiea
i?ioeaioiie noaaee ii e?aaeeoo. I?e ?aoaiee aii?ina i aiciiaeiinoe
caeeth/aiey e?aaeeoiie naeaeee n iioaioeeaeueiui caaiueeii iaiaoiaeeii
o/eouaaoue noaiaiue ?eneiaaiiinoe naeaeee, a oaeaea aa aeeyiea ia
aaee/eio ii?ooaeueiiai e?aaeeoiiai ?enea. Iaeneiaeueii aeiionoeiui
cia/aieai e?aaeeoiiai ?enea(aa?iyoiinoe) ii e?aaeeoiie naeaeea iiaeii
n/eoaoue /enei 0,25. Anee aea iiaay e?aaeeoiay naeaeea aeaeaao
ii?ooaeueiue e?aaeeoiue ?ene eaoano?ioe/aneei(iaeeaeaaiay aaee/eia
oauoeia ii e?aaeeoiiio ii?ooaeth i?aauoaao eaieoae aaiea), oi a yoii
neo/aa iaiaoiaeeii ioeacaoueny io iaa. E?aaeeoiue ?ene yaeyaony iaeiei
ec iniiaiuo oaeoi?ia, ieacuaathueo aeeiea ia aaee/eio i?ioeaioiie noaaee
ca iieueciaaiea e?aaeeoii. I?e aa ii?aaeaeaiee neaaeoao o/eouaaoue ?ene
iioa?e(iieiie eee /anoe/iie) nnoaeaiiuo n?aaenoa, ?ene ianaiaa?aiaiiiai
aica?aoa caaiueeii acyoiai e?aaeeoa e aeeyiea e?aaeeoiie naeaeee ia
noaiaiue ?eneiaaiiinoe e?aaeeoiiai ii?ooaey eiiia?/aneiai aaiea.

?acoeueoaou iao/iiai enneaaeiaaiey eniieuecothony a o/aaiii i?ioeanna
i?e eco/aiee eo?nia niioaaonoaothueo aeenoeeieei.

Iniiaiua ?acoeueoaou iaoee i?eiaiaiea a nenoaiao oi?aaeaiey e?aaeeoiuie
ii?ooaeyie ?yaea eiiia?/aneeo aaieia.

Eeth/aaua neiaa: e?aaeeoiue ?ene, oaeoi? e?aaeeoiiai ?enea,
eiaeei-aa?iyoiinoiia iiaeaee?iaaiea, eioaeeaeooaeeciaaiiay ioeaiea,
i?ioeaioiay noaaea.

Pernarivskiy O.V. Modelling of risk in the credit policy of the
commercial bank.- Manuscript.

The thesis on researching the Scientific Degree of Candidate of
Sciences in Economics on speciality 08.03.02-“Economics and mathematical
modelling”. The Kyiv National Economical University, Kyiv, 1999.

The theoretical and applied aspects of economics and mathematical
modelling of risk in the credit policy of the commercial bank are
modified in this thesis. The concept of the credit risk’s management,
including qualitative analysis, quantitative estimation and
incorporation of risk in decision making, is developed.

The credit risk factors (sources) and its logic-probabilistic modelling
are analyzed. The system of quantitative estimation’s indicators of the
credit risk is proposed. The choice of certain method(combination of
methods) for the estimation of each factor of the credit risk is
explained. The complex methodology of the credit risk’s estimation and
the algorithm of decision making about the possibility(expediency) of
credit deal with risk consideration are worked out. Economics and
mathematical model for credit’s interest rate determination, taking into
account the risk, is proposed.

Key words: credit risk, credit risk’s factor, logic-probabilistic
modelling, intellectualized estimation, interest rate.

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